The war in Ukraine has been going on for three months now. It quickly became clear that the Russian plan to take Ukraine in a few days would not work. The Russian troops were poorly prepared, often acted clumsily and suffered heavy losses. The capture of Kyiv failed, the troops withdrew to the east. It has already been said that they cannot hold out much longer.
But now the picture seems to be changing: the Russian armed forces are apparently successful in the Donbass. SRF foreign editor David Nauer on a war of attrition in the east that could be fought to the bitter end.
SRF News: What is the current situation in Donbass?
David Nauer: The situation has become very difficult for the Ukrainians in the past few days. The Russians have apparently broken through the Ukrainian defenses in several places and advanced several kilometers. The Ukrainians are particularly vulnerable in the city of Severodonetsk, which they control. The Russians carry out a major attack in the region. There is a risk that the city will be surrounded.
Why is taking the city strategically important for Ukraine?
Severodonetsk is located in the Luhansk Oblast, one of the two regions in the Donbass. The city is basically the last corner of Luhansk that the Ukrainians still control. Now the Kremlin claims that it wants to “liberate” the Donbass, i.e. to actually occupy it. If Severodonetsk falls into Russian hands, Moscow can declare that its first war aim has been achieved: the Luhansk region would be under Russian control.
There are military experts who have almost written off Russian combat capability. Why are they successful again?
There are two reasons. First, the Russians have massively scaled back their war aims. Instead of taking all of Ukraine or even just the entire east of the country, they are now fighting primarily in the Donbass, which is a very small area in relation to the size of Ukraine.
Legend:
Massive advances in the east instead of a broad-based invasion of the entire country: the Russian army is concentrating its attacks on positions in the Donbass. Apparently with success.
key stone
Second, the Russians changed their tactics. They gather troops massively, then shoot artillery from all guns for days – and then advance with superior strength. It’s a different approach than at the beginning of the war, when the Russians went pretty haywire because they thought the Ukrainians would just surrender.
I suspect Putin will only stop the war against Ukraine when his army is no longer physically able to mount further attacks.
What would Ukraine need to take countermeasures?
Ukraine still needs more modern, heavy weapons from the West, especially artillery and armored vehicles. But the Ukrainians are already fighting bitterly for every village, every position – they are also inflicting heavy losses on the Russians. According to military experts, it is actually a war of attrition; the question will probably be which army will run out of strength first – whether it will be the Russians or the Ukrainians cannot yet be predicted.
If the Russians manage to take the whole Donbass, would they have achieved their goal?
It is difficult to say what the Russians would do in such a case. I suspect Putin will only stop the war against Ukraine when his army is no longer physically able to mount further attacks. When simply too many tanks destroyed, too many soldiers died. Then Moscow might offer a hand in negotiations. Until then, Russia will probably continue the war.
The conversation was conducted by Simone Hulliger.