Will Streaming Services Lose Huge Subscribers in 2022? Data from the consulting firm Deloitte suggest this. A horror forecast for Netflix, after all, the growth of the platform is already stagnating. In addition, the streaming giant is economically much more unstable than many of its competitors. An analysis by Anna Schmid.
It is a gloomy forecast that the consulting firm Deloitte presented in December last year. It says that more than 150 million people worldwide will cancel their paid streaming subscriptions in 2022. Migration rates of up to 30 percent should be possible.
An assessment that should be alarming, especially for Netflix. After all, the streaming giant’s growth has stalled. For the first quarter of 2022, the group expected an increase in subscribers of just 2.5 million. That’s not just 1.5 million fewer than in the first quarter of 2021. It’s also the lowest value since 2012, according to an evaluation by the “Statista” portal.
The Corona boom seems to be over and Netflix’s growth may soon be over as well. Marcus Kleiner, who works as a media scientist at the SRH Berlin University of Applied Sciences works, says in an interview with CHIP: “Even regardless of the Deloitte forecast, Netflix faces major challenges.” He believes it could be difficult for the group in the coming years.
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Netflix “is economically more unstable than many of its competitors”
This has mainly to do with Netflix’s direction. In contrast to companies like Amazon or Apple, which primarily operate mail order or sell mobile phones, laptops and smartwatches, Netflix has a clear focus on streaming. “As a result, the company is economically less stable than many of its competitors,” says Kleiner.
A look at the streaming market shows how big this competition is. More and more services have sprung up like mushrooms in recent years – Disney Plus, Apple TV Plus, Paramount Plus or DAZN are just a few examples. The framework conditions for Netflix are getting worse and worse.
The streaming giant knows that too. Those responsible for Netflix have already tried to create new economic pillars, for example with interactive formats. In the 2018 film “Black Mirror: Bandersnatch”, for example, users can decide for themselves what happens next. And there are also several children’s series that work according to this principle.
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New mainstay? Netflix has launched gaming platform
Netflix then dared to take a much bigger step into the gaming industry last year. The group launched its own gaming platform, “Netflix Games”. Formats like “Stranger Things” are also available as online games. At the start, however, there were only five games to choose from, and the application did not work on iPhones.
One thing is clear: the gaming sector has potential. As figures from the Association of the German Games Industry show, sales in the games market in Germany alone increased by 32 percent to 8.5 billion euros between 2019 and 2020. A report by the “Wirtschaftswoche” shows that the market potential worldwide is 200 billion US dollars.
Kleiner believes that “Gaming has no business affinity with streaming, making it difficult for Netflix to establish that as a new mainstay.” However, he still thinks it is important that the group develops further in the coming years and focuses on new projects. He also described this in his book “Streamland”.
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Originals are what make Netflix so attractive to users
Perhaps the online store that Netflix launched last year is a good place to start alongside its gaming push. Users can order sunglasses from the Netflix series “Emily in Paris” for 260 to 300 US dollars, but there are also products for other films and series.
Because that’s what makes Netflix so attractive for many users in the end: the originals, i.e. content that can only be found with the streaming giant. As the “Variety” reports, the group is said to have planned 17 billion US dollars for new content in 2021 alone. If as many subscribers really leave as Deloitte predicts, it may be difficult to continue investing so much money in new content – and thus also in one’s own DNA. A vicious circle that needs to be broken now.
It is not for nothing that Kleiner repeats that Netflix “must develop significantly” in the long term. Even if the expert does not see the group in major difficulties at the moment. “The Netflix brand is strong and is almost equated with streaming. But the company shouldn’t rest on its laurels.”