HAS Chinese political horizon, for the next five and perhaps ten years, we will see only one head: that of Xi Jinping. High cheekbones, sad smile, combed line, heavy stature beginning to lean under the load, this man, 69, arrived at the controls at the end of 2012. And intends to stay there. The China of tomorrow will be that of Xi Jinping, under close surveillance internally, displaying its power externally.
The 20e congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) opens Sunday, October 16 and must entrust a third term to Xi – head of state, party and armies. There should be no surprise, the ceremony has been prepared in detail. The institutional apparatus is only there to dress up a decision taken some time ago. Having accumulated unchallenged power, Xi changed the rules even before the end of his first five-year term. The Constitution, which limited the time of a presidency to ten years – two terms – was amended in 2018.
This constraint no longer exists. It had been imposed by Deng Xiaoping, Mao’s successor, precisely to prevent the return of the deadly Maoist drifts. It was a question of framing, at least in time, the power of a man and of containing, if not preventing, the cult of personality.
The clause was scrupulously observed by Deng’s successors, Presidents Jiang Zemin (1993-2003) and Hu Jintao (2003-2013). They focused on giving a more collective profile to the Chinese leadership. They subscribed to a rule that ensured the regular renewal of the highest authorities of a country with 1.4 billion inhabitants and which, under their mandate, would become the second largest economy on the planet.
ideological battle
From this politico-constitutional wisdom, Xi thought fit to free himself. History does not support it. Ten years in power is already a long time, writes Martin Wolf in the FinancialTimes (October 4). The risks are known, he continues. Too long in office, the autocrat isolates himself, his representation of the world moves away from reality and he readily gives in to a form of paranoia. The example of Vladimir Putin, for twenty-three years at the helm of Russia, should serve as a warning. But, in the opacity of Zhongnanhai, the powerhouse in Beijing, on the edge of the Forbidden City, Xi has succeeded in imposing his person and his line.
The president concentrates a political power like none of his predecessors, with the exception of Mao, whom he calls himself on occasion. Xi is undoubtedly more ideologue than one imagines. We must take seriously his dithyrambs on Marxism-Leninism, consider sincere his faith in the superiority of socialism and the quasi-religious fervor with which he intends to maintain the Communist Party at the head of China. The party as the sole incarnation of the country means crushing the democratic movement in Hong Kong (it’s done) and putting an end to democratic autonomy in Taiwan (it’s more difficult).
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