Christian Althaus was one of the key experts in Switzerland during the Corona crisis. In an interview with NZZ editor-in-chief Eric Gujer, the epidemiologist from Bern draws a conclusion – and explains why further surprises are possible.
Two years of Corona are behind us and it finally seems as if the pandemic has been conquered. But are we really that far? “It’s certainly not all over, the virus will stay here and keep us busy in the future,” says the Bern epidemiologist Christian Althaus in “NZZ standpoints”.
Althaus speaks of a “new stage” of the pandemic in which we would have to learn to live with constant uncertainty. “You have to prepare for the fact that there will be new variants. That is very likely,” Althaus warns. However, nobody knows how dangerous these variants will be.
In the best case, according to Althaus, we will have similarly mild variants like Omikron in the future. The immunity of the population would increase even more and Corona would burden society in a similar way to the flu. “But you also have to prepare for the worse case that new variants can form, which could then become a bit more dangerous,” Althaus continues.
The next five or ten years can take us decisively forward
However, these could possibly be countered with “very mild measures”, such as the obligation to wear a mask. Althaus doubts that booster vaccinations will be necessary for the general population in the future. Over time, humankind will build up a basic immunity through repeated exposure to the virus, just as the flu does. Anyone who “will be infected with this virus from time to time” will receive a “natural booster”. This cannot be achieved with vaccinations alone.
Althaus explains that the next five or ten years could bring us a decisive step forward. Exceptions are particularly endangered and older people who have not been in contact with corona viruses since childhood and who have to fear further severe courses.
The epidemiologist would therefore like to see a more differentiated approach from decision-makers in the future. For this it is necessary to evaluate the experiences of the past two years. Both in terms of what went well and what could have been done better. In particular, Althaus would like better coordination between the various actors, above all within the task force, as well as more transparency about where an exchange between science and politics has taken place and how significant decisions are made.
New mutations threaten at any time
Switzerland could also benefit from taking a look at the approach of other countries. Scandinavian countries like Denmark or Sweden came through the pandemic even better overall. They would have taken fewer measures overall, but acted more strictly at crucial moments. Overall, Althaus certifies that Switzerland has found a “good middle ground” that reflects the country’s democratic culture: The fact that there is “still room for improvement” is also due to the fact that the various interest groups have tried to do justice. And in fact, the Corona crisis was more than a health crisis.
In any case, it is premature to rest on our laurels. New mutations can occur at any time, in completely unexpected ways. “In biology, chance plays a major role,” says Althaus. “The virus can change in individual patients. But it can also reinfect animal species and then jump back from animals to humans.”
Not only Sars-CoV-2 remains dangerous
In addition, there is a latent threat from other viruses. For example, from “Mers, the corona virus that occurs sporadically on the Arabian Peninsula: There is also a risk that this virus could change and then suddenly spread relatively efficiently among people,” Althaus warned.
Even influenza could reinvent itself in a recombination, for example by “mixing with viruses from animals” and then suddenly appearing in the form of a dangerous variant. “In this sense, we should be on guard and have the tools ready in the background,” demands Althaus.