MDespite an unprecedented effort since 2017 to make the ecological transition operational, we are not yet on the right climate trajectory. The scenarios do not close while retaining current logic, so that more and more experts doubt whether the 2030 objectives will be achieved without a profound change in method.
However, the stakes are immense. In less than thirty years, we must completely decarbonize a system totally dependent on oil and fossil fuels. In one generation, we will therefore have to review all economic activities and our social interactions, not only in the light of planetary limits, but also with regard to their capacity to adapt to climatic conditions to which they have no influence. never been confronted since their emergence.
To avoid being overwhelmed by events, public authorities must reinvent themselves. And as the budgetary debates prepare, if there is one area where almost everything remains to be done, it is that of public finances.
The first observation is simple: the transition will not happen on its own if we do not collectively provide the means – and at the right level. THE Pisany-Ferry – Mahfouz report calculates net needs at 66 billion euros per year by 2030, half of which will be borne by public authorities. However, a total of more than 100 billion euros will have to be earmarked for green investments alone. And it is a lower limit, limited to the climate, on an incomplete perimeter, and in a perfect world. To this will be added in particular the cost of crises and climatic disasters, that of stranded capital, layoffs and retraining, inefficient or unsuitable investments, not to mention the tensions on raw materials caused by this great greening.
Equity and justice in the effort
Then the question is who will bear the brunt of this effort, whether financial or behavioral. However, magic money does not exist, but neither does magic decarbonization: what the public authorities will not finance, others will suffer – with the middle and working classes being the main losers. There is a real danger for public finances: if there is not a perception of fairness and justice in the effort, consent to action, but also to taxes, could quickly find it threatened.
Beyond financing, it is the very functioning of public finances that must be re-examined. If you think too much in the short term, budgetary optimization becomes the main enemy of public finances.
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