Weak corona wave hoped for: consumer climate almost reaches pre-crisis level

Hoped for a weak corona wave
Consumer climate almost reaches pre-crisis level

The corona pandemic has been affecting consumer sentiment among Germans for many months. But with the hope that the fourth corona wave will not occur, optimism is apparently returning: The GfK consumer climate has risen to its highest level in almost a year and a half.

The mood of consumers in Germany improved noticeably in September. The optimism is increasing that the fourth corona wave will be less pronounced than many feared, said the market research company GfK. The GfK consumer confidence rose to its highest level in almost a year and a half.

GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl explained that at the time of the consumer survey in the first half of September, the increase in the incidence in Germany had slowed significantly. “Currently the numbers are even slightly down.” That is why many consumers see scope for further relaxation of the corona restrictions.

The consumer climate will consequently rise to 0.3 points in October, an increase of 1.4 points compared to September, predicted the GfK. This means that the consumer climate has almost returned to its pre-crisis level. But it remains to be seen whether we can speak of a fundamental turnaround, warned Bürkl. “The main thing here is how the infection process will develop in the winter months and whether new restrictions will be necessary.”

“Noticeably” better income prospects

According to the GfK survey, consumers see the German economy on the road to recovery. A stable labor market contributes significantly to the high level of their economic expectations. The income prospects have increased “noticeably”; the discussions about high inflation “did not significantly” influence this mood, explained Bürkl.

As a result, the inclination of consumers to make larger purchases is also increasing. However, propensity to consume continues to be at a low level. That “is not surprising, because the mask requirement and distance rules still dampen the desire to shop despite a well-filled wallet,” explained Bürkl. “Only when these restrictions cease to exist will the propensity to consume sustainably recover.”

For its representative studies on the consumer climate, GfK conducts monthly interviews with consumers on their economic expectations, their income expectations and their propensity to buy. For the current survey, around 2000 people were interviewed from September 2 to 13. Consumption is an important pillar of economic development in Germany.

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