Pappenberger confirms that the forecast quality of the seasonal forecast in our latitudes is rather low compared to the tropics. However, there are also areas in Europe in the summer that can be predicted quite well. This includes above all Southeastern Europe, where there is a high forecast quality. In Northwest Europe, on the other hand, it is relatively low, he says.
This long-term forecast for Central Europe could therefore be neglected if the signal for a hot and dry summer this year were not exceptionally strong. In addition, the German Weather Service comes to a similar conclusion in its long-term trend. Accordingly, the entire south of Europe would have to prepare for a severe summer with severe drought. The American weather service Noaa also calculates a positive deviation.
“The summer calculations already show a very clear signal,” says Andreas Brömser, agricultural meteorologist at the German Weather Service. However, one should not make the mistake of proclaiming a summer of heat and drought. The forecasts are too uncertain for that. Nevertheless, he urges increased caution: In the coming weeks you should follow the further calculations and, as a farmer, perhaps already think about how to divide up the available water and keep evaporation low.
So far, there have been no major problems from the point of view of agriculture, says Brömser. Oilseed rape and winter cereals had formed sufficiently deep roots and were able to obtain sufficient water. At best, sugar beets, corn and soybeans, which were sown at the end of March to April, could emerge late, and the fertilizer has not yet released in the dry regions. Trees and bushes, on the other hand, have not yet noticed much of the drought, explains the agricultural meteorologist.
One can only hope that it stays that way. Luckily, the forthcoming Omega doesn’t seem to hold its ground as steadily over Europe as usual. The weather models are already pointing to the end of next weekend, heavy showers and thunderstorms are forecast. The only problem is that the weather models often underestimate blocking weather conditions. It would therefore not be the first time that the omega situation simply does not want to end, although the weather models claim otherwise.