Week of many numbers: economic data show Dax the way

The Dax has made the jump over the 13,000 mark. Can he establish himself in this area? That will depend, among other things, on important economic data. The focus is on the US labor market. In Frankfurt, Deutsche Börse is reviewing the Dax indices.

According to strategists, the ongoing recovery of the global economy should support the new week. However, given the slowdown in economic activity, it should not be able to make any big leaps. After changing the strategy of the Federal Reserve Fed Investors will pay particular attention to the situation on the US labor market in the new stock market week. The decisive change by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is a transition to a form of flexible inflation target and greater tolerance for a hot labor market, as Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner explains. "With this, the Fed is moving towards a looser policy in the long term."

Dax 13,033.20

In the past week it is for the Dax in tow the record hunt to the US stock exchanges gone over the mark of 13,000 points. On Wall Street, the euphoria was fueled by surprisingly strong US economic data, most recently on incoming orders.

Many economists expect the US recovery to continue, albeit with somewhat weaker momentum. Already in July, he was badly shaken by the Corona crisis US job market We still made up ground, but not as many jobs were created as in the two previous months. Experts expect an average of 1.55 million jobs to be created outside of agriculture for August after 1.763 million most recently.

In Germany, too, the picture of a V-shaped economic recovery has recently been confirmed, as Helaba strategist Claudia Windt explains. However, with the important difference that the number of new infections in the USA recently fell, while they picked up speed again in the euro area – especially in France, Italy and Spain. "It remains to be seen whether the increasing infections will lead to appropriate countermeasures and whether this will slow down economic dynamism again," says Windt.

Groundbreaking data for the start of the autumn months

All in all, investors are facing an important data week for autumn. "The multitude of macro data will show what the starting position for a further economic recovery really is in autumn," says Robert Greil, chief strategist at Merck Finck. An important barometer for the upcoming economic activity are the numerous Purchasing manager indices. In the USA, the focus is on ISM indices for industry on Tuesday and for Services on Thursday. On the same days, the final corresponding indices from London-based Markit for Europe and the USA are on the agenda.

At the start of the week, consumer price data will also come from Germany and industry orders will come at the end of the week. "Incoming orders in German industry are likely to have increased significantly again in July, and the core inflation rate in the euro area is likely to have fallen noticeably in August."

That also gains momentum Election campaign in the USA, which is also dominated by the corona crisis. "As certain as a second term of office of a US President Trump was in the midst of a prosperous US economy at the beginning of the year, the outcome of the election is just as uncertain in times of a recession triggered by the pandemic," says Eckhard Schulte, head of the asset manager MainSky Asset Management. "For the stock exchanges, which are driven by an ultra-expansionary monetary policy and trillion-dollar economic stimuli, the US election will not turn into a game changer."

Index changes at a glance

Covestro
Covestro 39.91

From the company side, only a few annual reports are arriving. After Wirecard was kicked out of the Dax, Deutsche Börse will announce its results of the regular index review of the Dax family on Thursday evening. Due to the insolvency of the payment service provider, the exchange operator had specially revised its rules and regulations so that bankrupt companies can now be removed from the selection indices with a period of two trading days. Originally, Wirecard would have remained in the first stock market league until the official September date.

The plastics manufacturer was the next wobbly candidate among index experts Covestro. However, the company has caught on, says Uwe Streich, index expert at LBBW. "Danger recognized, danger averted. If there are no strange surprises with secondary conditions, they stay in."

The view across the Atlantic is erected at the end of the month Apple: The world's most valuable listed company with a share price of around $ 500 is doing a one-to-four stock split. This should make the papers of the iPhone manufacturer more affordable for small investors. Due to the falling weight of the two trillion dollar company in the defaults index Dow Jones Industrial an extensive rebuilding of the index is necessary.

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