(Boursier.com) — Another week of hesitation for the Parisian market with the CAC40 stagnating (+0.1%), at 8,022 points this Friday evening. European and American stock indices were further weighed down by doubts regarding the Fed’s rate cut timetable after several indicators showing that activity remained very (too) vigorous across the Atlantic… Enough to shift the timetable monetary policy of the US central bank. A revision of expectations further reinforced this week by the latest cautious statements from Jerome Powell. Investors also commented on the interventions of other members of the Fed: The President of the New York Fed, John Williams, declared that there was “no rush to lower rates”. Asked about the possibility of an increase, he replied that “that was not his basic expectation”, but added that it was possible if the data justified it, to achieve the inflation target…
The CME Group’s ‘Fedwatch’ tool now gives an 85% probability of a new Fed status quo in June, whereas a reduction for this meeting was considered almost certain just a few days ago…
In Europe, on the other hand, the consensus around a rate cut in June was further strengthened within the governing council of the European Central Bank after the last monetary meeting. The euro zone’s annual inflation rate stood at 2.4% in March, compared to 2.6% in February according to Eurostat’s flash estimate… In addition, the region returned to growth in March .
The week was also marked by continued tensions in the Middle East. Oil has nevertheless fallen back to $86.55 per Brent. On the currency front, the euro stagnated at $1.0655 and bitcoin fell back to $64,000 before the famous halving planned for this weekend.
VALUES
Medincell : +20%. The French biotech is logically in demand the day after the announcement of a major agreement with the American pharmaceutical giant AbbVie to co-develop and market up to six products in different therapeutic areas and indications.
Under the terms of the co-development and licensing agreement which covers up to 6 programs, Medincell will receive an upfront payment of $35 million and could receive up to $1.9 billion in milestone payments and marketing ($315 million for each program). Medincell is also eligible to pay mid-single to low-double-digit royalties on net sales.
Oddo BHF (‘outperform’) speaks of a doubly positive announcement for the group allowing both to once again confirm the potential of the technological platform developed by Medincell, to demonstrate the growing interest of the industry for Long formulations Acting (evidenced by the potential amount of milestone payments) and to consolidate the group’s cash flow with the aim of achieving operational profitability in 2027. The analyst revalues the file from 12.1 to 15 euros after updating its figures taking into account the collection of the upfront of $35 million as well as the adjustment of its WACC to 11.2% (vs. 14% previously) reflecting the updating of new market data as well as a better financial visibility…
Portzamparc emphasizes that the announcement is very important and secures cash flow beyond 2025, the horizon at which the group plans to become profitable. Enough to aim for a price of 19.40 euros while remaining a buyer on the file…
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Dare rises by 14% with Emeis (+11%) and Coty (+10%)
Claranova regains 6% with Elis (+5%) and Eramet (+4%) followed by Esso, Alstom and Orange
Vantiva : +3% followed by Catana, TF1, Klepierre
Edenred : +3%, after its quarterly publication. The specialist in meal vouchers published operational turnover up 18.8% to 625 million euros in the first quarter, slightly above expectations. Organic growth stood at 16.9%, well above market expectations of 14.6%.
The group has confirmed its 2024 objectives, namely growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) on a comparable basis greater than 12% and a conversion rate of Ebitda into free cash flow greater than 70%. .
Among the latest broker opinions, Citigroup remains ‘neutral’ on Edenred with an adjusted target of 51 to 52 euros. “Resilient demand and the largely ‘under-penetrated’ market the company serves suggest a continuation of the growth trends seen today and add weight to our 13.5% organic growth forecast for fiscal 2024 “, commented Bryan Garnier. The broker is ‘buy’ on the file with a target of 70 euros.
Danone rose by 2.8%, supported by its good start to the year. The agri-food giant has in fact published a quarterly net turnover of 6.789 billion euros, up 4.1% on a comparable basis, with a volume/mix up +1.2% and a price effect up +2.9%. “We are having a good start to the year, evidenced both by quality growth and the continued implementation of Renew Danone,” said general manager Antoine de Saint-Affrique. Management reiterated its 2024 objectives, i.e. like-for-like revenue growth of between +3% and +5% and a “moderate” improvement in current operating margin…
Among the latest broker opinions, Deutsche Bank retains Danone with a target raised from 55 to 57 euros, while Stifel remains a buy with a target which increases to 72 euros. “Danone presented a solid start to the financial year, although composed slightly differently from what we had initially planned, but in line with what was mentioned during the last contacts with management a few weeks ago,” says Stifel (‘ purchase’). From these results, the broker concludes that the dynamics observed in the second half of 2023 are intact and that the EDP segment should rebound in the coming quarters.
JC Decaux : +2.5% with Ubisoft, Fnac Darty
LVMH : +2%, investors finally showing themselves reassured by the publication of the world number one luxury goods company. In the first quarter, the group reported sales of €20.7 billion, organic growth of 3%, with an increase of 2% for the flagship ‘Fashion & Leather Goods’ division.
Morgan Stanley (‘online weighting’) refers to a “fairly good” publication. The figures and management’s comments during the presentation conference should slightly reassure the market, according to the bank. Bryan Garnier (‘buy’) believes that the first quarter could be the low point for the fashion and leather goods division. LVMH’s performance in the first quarter was “fairly bad”, as expected, but at least in line with expectations, without any “dramatic” trend. RBC (‘outperform’) highlights that management confirmed that fashion and leather goods trends in March were similar to those in the quarter, “which should provide modest reassurance that demand trends are quite stable”.
On the decline, Exail fall of 23%, while the Australian government announced the abandonment of its 3rd generation mine warfare program SEA 1905. This stop follows the review of defense programs which redefined the equipment priorities of the armed forces Australian authorities to take into account budgetary constraints.
Exail acknowledged this decision and thanked the Australian Government for allowing it to be selected as one of the two best consortia to deliver the project. Exail will remain engaged in Australia to meet the future needs of the country’s armed forces with all of its unique technologies in navigation, sonar and autonomous surface and underwater systems.
The group’s commercial activity remains intense in several regions of the world and Exail Technologies maintains its confidence in its ability to achieve its medium-term growth ambitions. Portzamparc, which had not integrated this program into its valuation method, remains a buyer on the file, targeting a price of 27 euros. The ‘deal’ was estimated between 300 and 500 ME…
Sartorius Stedim loses 21%, sanctioned despite maintaining its annual objectives. The group reported revenues down 8.2% in the first quarter amid weak demand in China. The turnover thus came to 666.9 ME over the period against a consensus of 703.5 ME. Ebitda fell 13.2% to 191 million euros, and the operating margin fell to 28.6%, compared to 30.3% a year earlier. The pharmaceutical equipment supplier expects a “moderate” first half with an expected improvement during the year. However, he warns of a “possible impact” on his activity from increased geopolitical tensions and the economic slowdown…
Morgan Stanley speaks of a “more difficult” first quarter than expected. Orders and sales fell short of consensus expectations. The bank says industry challenges, such as weak demand in China, persist.
Derichebourg down 10% with Lhyfe, Worldline
HIS : -9% followed by Innate, Casino, Valneva
Covivio : -8% with MdM
Beneteau : -7% with S30, Euroapi
LFE : -6% with VusionGroup
XFab : -5% followed by STM, BioMerieux, SoiTec
FDJ : -4% after the publication of quarterly turnover of 710 million euros, up +7.2% and +1.1% on a comparable basis, a performance in line with the Group’s projections . For 2024, FDJ has maintained its guidance, namely growth of around 8%, including +5% in lottery, sports betting and online gaming activities in France and +3% coming from other activities (International including integration Premier Lotteries Ireland, Payments & Services).
Thermador : -3% with Plastic Omnium, Seb and Kering