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Weekly review: the CAC40 is still progressing…


(Boursier.com) — Sixth consecutive week of growth for the Parisian market! Over the last five sessions, the CAC40 has gained another 1.25%, to 6,553 points. Despite the multiplication of international tensions and in particular the further deterioration of relations between Washington and Beijing after the visit to Taiwan of the speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, the flagship index of the Paris stock exchange continued to look higher in the wake of the US inflation figures came out more moderate than expected… The latest US producer price figures also confirmed that inflation had probably peaked in the United States. Several Fed officials, however, have tempered investors’ enthusiasm in recent hours, recalling that prices remained “very high”, and that the rate hike should continue…

ECO AND CURRENCIES

Consumer price inflation in the United States therefore slowed more than expected in July due to a sharp drop in the cost of gasoline. The consumer price index (CPI) stagnated last month after rising 1.3% in June, the Labor Department said. Over one year, it still posted a leap of 8.5%, after +9.1% the previous month.
Economists predicted a less marked slowdown, averaging an increase of 0.2% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year. This is the largest month-on-month deceleration in inflation since 1973. It follows a drop of about 20% in gasoline prices…

The producer price index for its part fell by 0.5% in July compared to the previous month, where the consensus was positioned at +0.2%. Excluding food and energy, the index posted an increase of 0.2% over one month and 7.6% over one year. Levels lower than the previous month and the expectations of economists. Despite this lull on the inflation front, several institution officials – from the “hawk” Neel Kashkari to the “dove” Mary Daly – have left no doubt that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy until inflationary pressures subside for a long time…
“Despite unwavering Fed rhetoric, this release has given investors hope that the pace of U.S. rate hikes will slow and the legendary soft landing may be less elusive than expected. “, told ‘Bloomberg’ Lewis Grant, head of global equities at Federated Hermes.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Barometer, the market now estimates the probability of a 50 basis point hike at the end of September at 67.5%, and at 32.5% that of a 75 bp hike (between 2.75 % and 3%). On the bond markets, the rates evolve in dispersed order. The yield on the 10-year American 10-year rose by 6.5 basis points to 2.84% while that of the two-year, more sensitive to changes in the Fed’s rate, dropped 2.5 bp to 3.19%. The dollar lost another 0.4% against a basket of currencies.

In France, the unemployment rate calculated according to the standards of the International Labor Office (ILO) remained almost stable in the second quarter in France (excluding Mayotte), posting an increase of 0.1 point over the period to settle at 7 4%, according to data published Friday by INSEE.
Economists polled by Reuters expected it to be stable at 7.3%, its lowest level since early 2008 reached in the first quarter of 2022, but the 0.1 point increase observed over the April-June period is within the margin error of this estimate “within plus or minus 0.3 points” of the level of the unemployment rate.

The UK economy held up a little better than expected in June and the second quarter. According to data from the National Statistics Office, GDP fell by 0.6% over the period against a decline of 1.2% anticipated by the market, and after a rise of 0.4% in May. Over the second quarter as a whole, activity would have fallen by 0.1% (first estimate) against a fall of 0.2% expected by economists, and after an increase of 0.8% in the first quarter. Household consumption and services weighed on activity, unlike foreign trade.
The economy should see a technical rebound in the current quarter, but the outlook is bleak. With inflation soaring and set to top 13% in October, the Bank of England expects the UK to enter recession at the end of this year and see no growth until October. second half of 2024.
Industrial production also fell by 0.9% in June after rising 0.9% in May, but against an expected decline of 1.4%. Over one year, production posted an increase of 2.4% (+1.6% consensus).

On the currency side, the dollar index, which measures the fluctuations of the greenback against a basket of benchmark currencies, continued to decline. L’euro points to 1.0255 dollars.
The barrel of crude WTI for September delivery, on the other hand, gained ground at the end of the week at $93 on the Nymex. The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for crude demand growth this year, as soaring gas prices are prompting some consumers to turn to oil. Brent rises for its part to $98 a barrel.

VALUES

inventive rises 20% followed by Mauna Kea (+16%) and Abivax (+15%)

IIS recovers 13% after better than expected counts, followed by Adocia and Poxel (+11%)

rally recovers nearly 9% with Ose

Valeo, Plastic Omnium and Faurecia (+8%) rose together after the announcements of new aid for electric vehicles in the United States.

Veolia : +7% followed by Chargeurs and Casino with Elior

Worldline : +5% followed by Carmila, Sodexo and Covivio with Alstom and Bouygues on the industrial side

AXA : +4% with Vallourec and Amundi

On the decline, Sanofi corrected by more than 11%, while the pharmaceutical group, GlaxoSmithKline and Haleon have tried to reassure the financial community in recent hours about the legal proceedings linked to Zantac in the United States. “There is no major development” explained the groups concerned by this file…
Sanofi’s capitalization fell 11% in two days, GSK’s by 15% and Haleon’s by 12.5% ​​as the market feared upcoming lawsuits targeting Zantac, a heartburn treatment removed from the market. market from 2019 after the appearance of a potential risk related to a potentially carcinogenic impurity. More than 2,000 complaints involving Zantac have been filed in the United States according to analysts’ estimates and the first trial is due to open at the end of August…
Sanofi has however specified that the first trial in which it is directly implicated is scheduled for February 2023.

Euroapi down 4% with BioMerieux, Euronext

SopraSteria : -3% with Xilam

STM : -2.5% followed by Neoen, Air France KLM, Ubisoft

BigBen : -2% with Michelin

Thales : -1% with Danone, M6 and Beneteau



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