(Boursier.com) — Despite three sessions in the red, the Parisian market limited its weekly decline to 0.69%, to 7,135 points this Friday evening. After the exit of the Central Banks last week, the last few days have been marked by a surge in bond rates, like the yield on 10-year US Treasury securities which reached 4.6%, its highest level. since October 2007, before an ebb at the end of the week with reassuring inflation figures on both sides of the Atlantic.
In the United States, the US Department of Commerce indicated that the core PCE inflation index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, had decelerated to 0.1% in August over one month after an increase of 0. .2% in July. Over one year, its progression was reduced to 3.9%, compared to 4.3% in July. “These are very, very good numbers. Even if the decline is not spectacular, it is going in the right direction,” commented Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners. “I am very optimistic that inflation will continue to decline and the Fed will take that into account in its reasoning on interest rates.”
In the euro zone, inflation slowed more than expected in September. According to initial data from Eurostat, the annual inflation rate in the region is estimated at 4.3% over the month, compared to 5.2% in August, and 4.5% consensus. Inflation had not been this ‘low’ for almost two years. Annual ‘core’ inflation should stand at 4.5% after 5.3% in August and against a consensus of 4.8%. These data are good news for the ECB even if price strength remains significantly higher than the European Institution’s objective.
While waiting for the next results season, in mid-October, the trajectory of the interest rates of the main central banks should continue to fuel debate, as will the American “shutdown” (government shutdown) which now seems very likely.
On the oil market, the barrel continued its rally with Brent surpassing the $97 mark. The market remains buoyed by the latest production reduction announcements from Saudi Arabia and Russia until the end of the year while demand prospects improve. The sharp drop in US crude stocks has also supported black gold prices in recent days.
On the currency side, the euro remained choppy, and is trading below $1.06. Finally, Bitcoin is moving close to $26,900 on Coindesk.
VALUES
* Ubisoft climbs 4.5%. The video game publisher was boosted by a note from Exane BNP Paribas which upgraded its value recommendation to ‘outperform’, targeting 37 euros. Ubisoft also expects streaming to transform the video game industry, according to an interview given to the ‘Financial Times’ by the group’s CEO, Yves Guillemot. The latter declared that when Netflix had first announced that it was going to launch into streaming, its shares had fallen sharply on Wall Street and the group had been widely criticized. But today it’s clear what they’ve become, and it should be the same for video games – with Guillemot adding that the company firmly believes that in the next 5-10 years many games will be streamed and will also be produced in the cloud, which prompted the company to move forward with the deal Microsoft.
* Sopra Steria rose 4.2%. The title of the IT services group, which has been at its highest level for two months, is supported by a note from HSBC which considers the company still attractive, even after its rally of almost 40% this year. “Sopra Steria offers a resilient profile of revenue growth and margin expansion,” the bank writes. She considers the valuation attractive despite the gains since January 1. Sopra has the potential to surprise positively in terms of turnover and margin, as well as to self-finance new acquisitions thanks to its solid balance sheet, adds the broker.
* Nexans rises by 3.6%, while the group has decided to implement a share buyback program covering a maximum number of 275,000 shares, in accordance with the authorization given by the 17th resolution of the General Meeting of Shareholders of May 11, 2023, in order to meet the obligations arising from the free share and performance plans for the benefit of employees and executive corporate officers. Furthermore, HSBC adjusted its sights on the cable ship from 110 to 97 euros, while remaining on the purchase side, while the group announced at the end of July a record EBITDA and ROCE “driven by a unique growth model based on value”.
* Arkema takes 3.1% after its Capital Markets Day. The Group took the opportunity to announce that it is aiming to accelerate the organic growth of its turnover in the medium term, by capitalizing on its recent or future industrial investments in high-growth market segments. By 2028, Arkema aims to achieve a turnover of around 12 billion euros with a high EBITDA margin of around 18%. Average organic growth is expected around 4% per year and average organic EBITDA growth of 7-8% per year over the period 2024-28.
* Airbus increases by 2.5%. The aeronautics giant has announced the appointment of Christian Scherer as head of the commercial aircraft business. “Giving Christian the role of CEO of Airbus Commercial Aviation will allow us to focus more on the success of our Commercial Aircraft business while allowing me to devote my time to leading Airbus in a complex and rapidly changing global environment,” he said. declared Guillaume Faury, CEO of Airbus. Cathay Group also announced the purchase of 32 additional A320neo family aircraft, as it continues to invest in the expansion and modernization of its fleet. This agreement brings the total number of A320 neo family aircraft ordered by the Asian carrier to 64 units, of which 13 have already been delivered.
Conversely, * Voltalia plunges by 25.5%, sanctioned after its warning on results and the presentation of a net loss widened in the first half. The renewable energy producer suffered a deficit of 19.4 million euros over the first six months of the year compared to 4.6 million a year earlier, reflecting the seasonal nature of the electricity production of the Voltalia fleet, the overweighting of Services sales in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half and non-recurring items. EBITDA stood at €56 million, up 18% (+17% at constant exchange rates), for a turnover of €198.9 million, a very slight increase compared to the first half of 2022. The 2023 normative EBITDA target, initially between 275 and 300 million euros, is now expected at around 275 ME, including in particular the impacts of the widespread power cut in Brazil. This objective nevertheless represents a doubling of 2022 EBITDA.
* Beneteau fall of 16% despite the increase in its current operating margin forecast for 2023. The boater revealed significantly improved half-year results, anticipates a record financial year, confirms its 2025 roadmap… but the market has sanctioned caution for 2024 . “In a context of a sharp rise in interest rates and with a stock level at dealers returning to the pre-covid level in volume, a destocking is expected in certain distribution networks in 2024, in particular those very active on the small units. The Group, more agile thanks to the measures taken since 2019, nevertheless continues to adapt to the evolution of its markets and pursues its 2025 roadmap in terms of operational excellence”, indicated Bénéteau.
* Solutions30 drops 13% after collapsing 16.8% last Friday. The European company specializing in solutions for new technologies has confirmed its annual objectives despite the announcement of lower results for the first part of the financial year. Management is still targeting a turnover of more than 1 billion euros and continued improvement in margins over the financial year. “After the low point in the second half of 2022, the recovery in the operating margin over the first six months of 2023 is mixed with, despite the operational recovery in France, the impact of ramp-up costs in Belgium and difficulties in Italy “, explained TP ICAP Midcap (‘purchase’) at the end of last week, which reduced its target from 4 to 3.8 euros.
* ALD yields 8.1%. The title of the long-term car rental branch of the Societe Generale has seen its capitalization fall by more than a quarter since September 15, the last trading day before ALD presents its new strategic plan and revises downwards an important financial indicator. In addition to inflation, ALD is facing an unforeseen increase in expenses linked to an overhaul of Leaseplan’s IT system, Tim Albertsen told ‘Bloomberg’. The ALD CEO said that although he was aware of the project during the due diligence process, he did not realize how much spending had jumped until after the deal closed in May. “We saw something in the due diligence, and we found something completely different at the close,” the executive emphasized.
* Kering yields 6.2%, Hermes loses 3.5% and LVMH gives up 2.2%. One by one the analysts review their copy on the sector. The latest is Morgan Stanley: the investment bank has reduced its 2024 profit forecast for European luxury companies by 2 to 5%, while its analysts expect a slowdown in demand, particularly in United States and Europe, with almost all of the growth coming from Chinese nationals. “This is our first downward revision of sector forecasts since the summer of 2020,” write the bank’s teams. They also cut their organic growth forecasts for the 3rd and 4th quarters by 200 to 800 basis points for most companies, citing weaker demand. Morgan Stanley nevertheless affirms that this is now widely anticipated by investors.