(Boursier.com) — Great week of rebound for the Parisian market with the CAC40 rising 1.87% to 7,379 points this Friday evening. Investors have welcomed the European Central Bank’s new interest rate hike, hoping it will be the last in the ongoing historic monetary tightening cycle. The ECB raised its interest rates for the tenth time in a row on Thursday, bringing its deposit rate to 4% (a record) while it was still negative 14 months ago, in the face of persistent inflationary pressures. But while some are already beginning to anticipate the cycle reversal and therefore the next rate cut, several officials from the Institution have ruled out this possibility. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, for example, said that expectations of a rate cut in June 2024 were just market bets that could easily turn out to be incorrect.
The next big market meeting will take place on Wednesday with the Fed’s monetary policy decision. Investors still overwhelmingly anticipate a status quo from the Federal Reserve following its meeting on September 19 and 20. The FedWatch tool shows a probability of 97%. Regarding the next meeting, the probability of rates remaining between 5.25 and 5.5% stands at 68%, despite the recent solid economic data and the slightly higher than expected figures for consumer and retail prices. the production.
The week was also marked by the new surge in black gold prices (+3%) with a barrel of Brent trading above $93 this Friday evening. Global oil markets will face a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels per day next quarter, potentially the biggest deficit in more than a decade. According to the latest data published by OPEC, the contraction of supply from Saudi Arabia, in a context of record demand, shows that it only worsens the current imbalances…
On the currency market, the euro has suffered and is on track to record a ninth consecutive week of decline, its longest negative series since its creation in 1999. The European currency has lost more than 5% against the of Uncle Sam compared to its peak in mid-July. It is trading around $1.07. Finally, Bitcoin is moving close to $26,300 on Coindesk.
VALUES
* SES-imagotag soared by 10% after the presentation of significantly improved half-year accounts. The firm reported a net profit of 91.5 million euros for a turnover up 33% to 380.1 million euros. EBITDA is €43.5 million, up 72%, or a margin of 11.4%. For the current half-year, the group anticipates continued strong growth, in line with its annual target of €800 million in turnover, as well as a further improvement in its profitability. Portzamparc mentions results in line with its expectations and reiterates its ‘buy’ opinion on the file. “We believe SES-Imagotag’s first half results will be a positive near-term catalyst for its share price, which should ultimately lead to a decline in short seller interest (currently at around 13% of capital), writes Berenberg, to ‘buy’ on the value.
* Ipsen jumped 7.4%. The pharmaceutical group, which is at a peak of more than four years, was boosted by a note from UBS which raised its recommendation on the file to ‘buy’, targeting 150 euros…
* BNP Paribas takes 5.2% with Agricultural credit (+6.1%). Banks were in demand after the ECB’s new rate hike.
* JCDecaux advance of 4.8%. The buyer flow on the file is linked to a rating from Oddo BHF which raised its opinion on the value to ‘outperform’. The group also obtained the renewal of its self-service bicycle contract for the city of Toulouse following a call for tenders and was selected to deploy and operate the airport’s indoor and outdoor advertising media. from Bordeaux.
* Societe Generale gains 4.7%. Ahead of the CMD on September 18, Oddo BHF reiterates its ‘outperformance’ opinion on the bank. Beyond the announcements of this meeting, which in large part already seem widely expected by the market, the broker estimates that the re-rating of the stock should come in the coming months from the prospects of a strong rebound of the RN in 2024 and in 2025. In addition to the rise in the synergies already mentioned (retail banking in France, LeasePlan, etc.), the analyst recalls that SG will also benefit in particular from: a gradual improvement in the interest margin in France (knowing that the negative impact of old rate hedges should gradually disappear during H1 2024) and the end of the contribution to the Single Resolution Fund (cost of 658 ME in H1 2023). The consensus therefore expects its RN to increase by 37% and 15% respectively in 2024 and 2025 (+35% and +14% for Oddo BHF).
Conversely, * Atos returns 6.2%. A new voice has been raised against the restructuring project of the digital services company. In this case that of the CIAM activist fund. In a letter sent on September 12 to the board of directors of Atos and the Financial Markets Authority, CIAM denounces the conditions envisaged for the sale of Tech Foundations to Mr. Kretinsky as well as the irregularities in the communication and governance of the group . In an interview with ‘La Tribune’, Bertrand Meunier, on the contrary, defends his restructuring project. He affirms that the buyer of Tech Foundations (editor’s note: Daniel Kretinsky) “will support the entire plan”. He also believes that the operation “allows the separation of the two entities as announced as well as a significant reduction in the level of risk for Eviden”. In addition, it is “perfectly consistent with our separation project, acts on it and therefore will close a chapter in the history of Atos”.
* Remy Cointreau lost 4.9% while Pernod Ricard loses 1.5%. Barclays downgraded both companies by two notches to ‘underweight’, based on the impact of the decline in the key 25-45 age group in China. The British bank explains that this is the main consumer demographic and that sales of premium spirits will likely see a slowdown. Barclays models a 22% decline in the population of this age group by 2035 in China. Additionally, the country is expected to experience a slower economic environment, which could limit consumers’ ability to pay more or trade more. The broker notes that Pernod generates around 15% of its sales and 20% of its profits in China. For Rémy Cointreau, around 29% of revenues and 35% of profits are made in the country.
* Fnac Darty (-6%) has decided to withdraw the offer of senior bond issues of 300 million euros, maturing in January 2029, given insufficiently attractive market conditions. Fnac Darty benefits from a solid financial structure, with no short-term maturity and no immediate refinancing needs. Indeed, in the absence of the issue, the Delayed-Draw Term Loan (DDTL), an undrawn bank credit line of 300 million euros, dedicated to the refinancing of senior bonds maturing in May 2024, is maintained as a whole.
* Air France KLM fell by 3.8%, penalized by the surge in black gold prices and a cascade of profit warnings from American companies.
* Ipsos lost 2.5% in the wake of its income warning. For the current financial year, the specialist in survey studies now anticipates organic growth of between 3% and 4%, compared to “around 5%” announced at the start of the year. Management cites difficult commercial conditions in China and a level of activity lower than its expectations with major American technology clients.