PFor nearly fifteen hundred years, valuable goods have been transported from China and other parts of Asia to Europe and the Middle East via the Silk Road. If the route has varied over time, this route has always passed through the regions of Central Asia, or has always involved local merchants from them.
Today, this trade is flourishing again, but it involves the transport of goods from the United States, Japan, Western Europe and China to Russia, via countries such as Armenia, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan.
Democracies are well aware that this trade strengthens President Putin’s regime and facilitates his war of aggression in Ukraine. Their governments, however, do very little to stop these exchanges, for fear of upsetting national industrial interests. The G7 and the European Union [UE] must strengthen their export controls.
“Leak rate”
Apparently, these controls work correctly: the American exports goods to Russia fell to 0.6 billion dollars (0.55 billion euros) in 2023, compared to 5.8 billion in 2019 before Covid-19, a considerable drop of 90%. The same goes for Japan (–60%) and Germany (–70%) over the same period (national data according to Haver Analytics).
But there is something wrong: Russia’s imports of goods increased from 254 billion in 2019 to 304 billion in 2023 (+ 20%), according to data from the Central Bank of Russia.
Two reasons explain this. First, China has significantly increased its exports to Russia (110 billion in 2023, compared to 50 billion in 2019, an increase of 125%). Second, Western goods reach Russia via third countries.
American exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus increased from 2.6 billion in 2019 to 4.1 billion in 2023 (+ 60%), an increase occurring immediately after the Russian invasion… Those of Japan increased by 67 % over the same period, and 72% for Germany. This increase concerns all Western states, and all countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus. About a quarter of the volume of goods that is no longer exported to Russia is to this region. A similar “leakage rate” – around 30% – is observed for German exports of cars and auto parts.
It is entirely possible that this leak concerns dual-use goods, such as parts for automobiles and military vehicles. Even if this is the case, Western goods enable the reorientation of the Russian economy towards war production, which is almost as bad.
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