What awaits the French in terms of the economy in 2022

After a year 2021 rich in health, political and economic developments, 2022 promises to be just as exciting. Between the elections and the increase in the livret A rate, a look back at the five events selected by Le Figaro which will impact the finances of the French next year.

A booklet

The Minister of the Economy and Recovery promised it in December on BFMTV: “The rate of the livret A will increase in January for millions of French people who have an account“. The executive remains the only master on board concerning its rate, fixed at the floor of 0.5% since February 2020. Revisable twice a year (in January and in July), the livret A has for original objective the maintenance of the power of purchase over time, which is no longer fulfilled due to inflation. In November 2021, the increase in consumer prices reached 2.8% over one year. So even slightly raised, this new rate could be a game-changer for millions of French people who are currently losing money with this investment. In October, the outflow of the livret A and the sustainable development and solidarity booklet had even risen to -3.4 billion euros, crushing a record dating from the end of 2014! The latest data available shows more withdrawals than deposits in November. The balance reached -90 million euros. It must be said that with the approach of the holidays, the French have dug in their thick woolen stockings, made during the health crisis.

Read alsoLivret A: more withdrawals than deposits in November

Monetary Policy

The financial markets often seem far removed from the daily concerns of the French. However, monetary policy, which falls under the competence of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the euro area, has effects on economic activity, in particular via interest rates and the level of loans granted to individuals and businesses. . And the ECB has been very generous since the start of the health crisis, like other central banks, through massive injections of liquidity as a shock to the crisis and keeping rates low. This has undoubtedly led to a certain euphoria: as evidenced by the chain records on the Paris Stock Exchange and on Wall Street at the end of the year. But this support could wane next year, as the Governor of the Banque de France François Villeroy de Galhau suggested in November. Taking a grain of salt, ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested on December 16 that he would be very “unlikely that we will hike interest rates in 2022 [le levier classique en matière de politique monétaire : une hausse des taux est supposée restreindre l’accès aux crédits] […] under the current circumstances“. In any event, these measures will have to be followed very closely in Europe and the United States. They will depend above all on the evolution of the pandemic and the level of recovery.

Read alsoThe European Central Bank is slipping back its monetary support to the economy

2022 finance bill

“The finance bill [PLF] for 2022 aims to promote economic growth, in order to envisage a gradual restoration of public finances», Bercy recalled in December. At second reading in the National Assembly at the beginning of December after a first rejection by the Senate, the 2022 Bill includes in particular the reduction in income tax due to inflation, the exemption for the wealthiest households of 65% of the housing tax (before its elimination for all in 2023), the renewal of MaPrimeRénov ‘and the application of the tariff shield to counter the rise in the price of energy. The Minister of Ecological Transition Barbara Pompili had guaranteed, at the beginning of December on BFM Business, the capping of the increase in the price of electricity at 4%. Another support measure, the price of gas will be frozen at its October 2021 level. Note that the regulated gas tariff, the only one concerned, jumped by more than 12% this month compared to September. The tariff shield will be implemented from February 1, 2022 to January 31, 2023.

Read alsoBudget: second reading in the Assembly with new “tailor-made” provisions

State guaranteed loans

Since March 2020, more than 650,000 businesses have benefited from State Guaranteed Loans (PGEs) set up by the executive to support businesses in the face of the health crisis. This represents a total amount of 135 billion euros according to the Banque de France. All companies (SMEs, mid-cap companies, traders, etc.) can apply for it until December 31, 2021. After a first postponement of one year of reimbursements of EMPs, the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire affirmed mid -November that there would be no new one. From March 2022, the companies concerned, which have not started to reimburse, will therefore be obliged to do so. But Bruno Le Maire promised “case-by-case solutions»For those in difficulty during the 6th GNI-Synhorcat congress bringing together independents from the hotel and catering sector. Still according to data from the Banque de France, nearly 3,950 companies having subscribed to a EMP had defaulted, less than 0.6% of them in mid-October.

Elements which depend on the result of thepresidential elections

On April 24, 2022, the French will discover at 8 p.m. the face of the one who will govern the country for the next five years. To date, the current President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron is not officially a candidate. On the right, Valérie Pécresse, dubbed Les Républicains at the beginning of December, offers among other things “cut 150,000 civil servant positions“Or”set up a heritage transmission shock‘”Via a tax-exempt donation system. Further to the right of the political spectrum, Marine Le Pen pleads for a tax on financial wealth, which would exempt the main residence from the calculation. It also proposes that young people under 30 no longer have to pay income tax. As for its competitor Eric Zemmour, it would reduce production taxes by 30 billion euros and reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% (SMEs, craftsmen, etc.). Jean-Luc Mélenchon proposes for his part to advance the retirement age to 60 years and would exit nuclear power by 2045. A point in common with the candidates Yannick Jadot and Anne Hidalgo. The list of measures is not exhaustive but promises lively debates in the months to come.

Read alsoPresidential 2022: Valérie Pécresse chooses six campaign spokespersons

Read alsoWhen the EMP is an alternative financing for start-ups