What if the war is over?: “Veterans will say: I have to get out of Ukraine”

What if the war is over?
“Veterans will say: I have to get out of Ukraine”

September 9, 2023, 5:01 p.m

There are tens of thousands of soldiers on the front lines in Ukraine died or been wounded. Millions of people have been displaced or have fled – to protected parts of the country or abroad. But while bloody fighting continues in the east and south of the country, people like Tymofij Mylovanov live as normal a life as possible and plan to rebuild their homeland. In an interview with ntv.de, the President of the Kyiv School of Economics speaks of an absolutely insane task. In order to overcome this, the economist hopes for the return of smart Ukrainians from abroad and a gold rush atmosphere in the West. Because he also fears that many Ukrainians will need a long break from their homeland after a possible end to the war.

ntv.de: How has the Ukrainian economy changed since the war? Are there any abnormalities?

Tymofij Mylovanov: In the case of Kiev, there were 3.9 million inhabitants before the war. According to recent data, 3.6 million people currently live in the city. But there is a substitution effect: a total of around 700,000 people have left the city. But a lot of people from the war zones have moved to Kiev. One can speak of an exchange: people from the east and south of Ukraine have fled to the center. People from the center went west to Lviv, Chernivtsi or Zakarpattia. And those who lived in Lviv fled to Europe. That seems to be the trend.

Everyone moved a little west?

Yes. If you look at the numbers, 70 percent of the people who distributed within Ukraine stayed in their home region. In Kharkiv, people have left the city or their village at the front, but have moved just a little to the west. Very few fled from there to Poland or something like that.

Can you explain why?

Migration is related to networks. If you don’t go to Poland or Germany as a refugee, you want to continue living your normal life. Work. Open a business. To rent a flat. For that you need contacts. And you are more likely to find friends and relatives in your immediate geographical environment than abroad. That’s why you can say about the economy: It works in Kiev. The traffic jams are not as bad as before the war, but the streets are full.

Traffic is jammed in Kiev?

People have to get to work and back home somehow… The cafes are full, everyone is living their lives. We recently wanted to go to the country for a weekend and unwind. We couldn’t find any accommodation, everything was fully booked. Two or three hotels still had a room available. In this sense you can say: the service industry is doing well. Does this apply to the entire economy? No. A lot of exports were destroyed, for example grain. 40 or 50 percent of our agricultural and steel products were exported through the port in Odessa. That’s history. We can deliver 30 percent of the previous volumes across our western borders, but this is much more expensive.

Agriculture and the steel industry suffered the most from the war?

Yes. The Russian blockade in the Black Sea prevents exports, but many factories, especially in the manufacturing sector, were destroyed. Most are in the east of the country. I was in Kharkiv a few weeks ago. It looked as if the Russians had systematically bombed every factory. But it’s not that easy to completely destroy them, because the factories are huge. Missiles have to be very accurate if you want to hit certain equipment. The Russians are still working on that. They also destroy energy infrastructure, important logistical hubs and oil depots. They want to destroy our heavy industry. Anyone who runs large factories in Kharkiv or Dnipro is in trouble. Smaller companies, on the other hand, can try to relocate their production to the west of Ukraine or spread it across several locations.

Is heavy industry also suffering because many men are fighting at the front?

My personal impression is that this is not true. There are currently around 500,000 men serving in the army and tens of thousands of women. Before the war, the working population consisted of 17 million people. Even if 150,000 soldiers were killed or wounded, that is only one percent of our workforce. This is not insignificant, on the contrary. But the bigger problem is Russian attacks on factories, workshops and equipment.

How are things going in the defense industry?

This Area is booming. There are always new ideas, especially in the area of ​​drones. Particularly fast drones, crawling drones, automated warfare, which uses artificial intelligence, machine learning… a lot is happening in the software and hardware area with military technologies and a lot of it spills over into the civilian economy. The military is supported by a lot of smart people, but it should also be noted that a lot of smart people left the country to go to Warsaw or California. Are they coming back? This requires good news from the front.

From an economic perspective, do you want to return?

Naturally. But even if they come back, people will continue to leave the country after a possible end to the war. Veterans, for example. They will say that they did what they could and made their sacrifice. Now they need a break and have to get out of Ukraine. Me too. I don’t fight, but running a university and foundation during the war and helping politically… we’re all completely burned out. I dream of just going surfing in Costa Rica for a year when the war is over. Anyone who was abroad instead will say: I was gone long enough. I’ll go back and help rebuild.

Do you think that a kind of gold rush atmosphere could arise and that other people from Europe or the USA would join in the reconstruction?

Perhaps. But that will depend on how the war ends. When Putin and the old Russia are defeated, definitely. Then good would have won. That would be exciting, a kind of renaissance. People from Western Europe, the USA or even Kazakhstan will want to support this. But if there is only a ceasefire, a frozen conflict in which missiles may continue to fly, no one will want to go to Ukraine.

Because people are afraid?

Also, but when there is a depressing mood in the country and there are no more jobs in Kiev or Kharkiv… Nobody wants to go through that. At the moment, however, a lot of people are still coming to Ukraine from abroad because they know that this is a historic moment. The future of Central and Eastern Europe is currently being decided. At least.

Anyone who wants to do something meaningful with their life is welcome in Ukraine?

Absolutely. Come here, learn and teach with us. We build research facilities together or organize workshops. Remotely or on site at the Kyiv School of Economics. You can come for a few weeks or months. There is so much to do, around five to seven percent of our entire living space has been destroyed… If you want to rebuild a place, you don’t just have to clear mines, you also have to record and assess the damage to every building. A huge task, absolute madness. We need so many engineers – much more than you can imagine.

Christian Herrmann spoke to Tymofij Milovanov