One upgrade drives out another. After the anticipated increase of 4% in the basic pension, and while a rise of 5.1% is looming for the complementary Agirc-Arrco, the government already figures the increase program for January. It will be modest compared to that of summer 2022.
In 2023, the anticipated revaluation of 4% decides in the summer of 2022 being only an advance on that of 2023, pensions would be revalued by an additional 0.8% on January 1, 2023: this sentence rich in information is nested in the last report of the Social Security accounts, published in parallel with the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) for 2023. A forecast that we also find, but no in such detail, in the PLFSS.
The 4% of summer 2022 was only an advance on the increase of January 2023
The fact that the basic pension – the pension paid by the Cnav, the State Pensions Service (SRE), the CNRACL or even the CNAVPL – increases on January 1, 2023 is not a surprise. It’s the law. Since 2018, the annual adjustment of the basic pension has been postponed from October 1 to January 1. The exceptional increase of 4% operates this state act via the purchasing power law but it is only an anticipation of the annual revaluation. The Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire confirmed in mid-September that the increase of January 1 would be calculated on the basis of inflation… while taking into account the anticipated increase of 4%.
If your basic pension had not increased this summer, the mathematical increase on January 1, 2023 would most likely have been 4.8%. At least that is the estimate given in this report, this percentage corresponding to the regulatory formula, based on the average inflation observed over 12 months, from November 2021 to October 2022, compared to the average of the previous 12 months. As the consumer price index for October is not known, this percentage remains provisional, but it should not be very far from this 4.8%.
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Basic pension: probable increase of 0.8% on January 1, 2023
However, pensions have already been increased by 4% in July (in fact, the increase has been visible since September): the State will therefore take this anticipation into account to apply only the supplement. Or 0.8% increase on January 1, 2023.
| average inflation end of October* | Annual reset on January 1 | Early revaluation on July 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 0.9% | 0.3% | – |
| 2020 | 0.2% | 0.3% (1% for pensions less than 2000) | – |
| 2021 | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 2022 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 4% |
| 2023 (estimate) | 4.8% | 0.8% | – |
* Measure of inflation used for the revaluation of basic pensions, ie the average over 12 months stopped in October of the year preceding the revaluation, compared to that of the 12 previous months.
Source: report of the Social Security Accounts Commission – results for 2021 and forecasts for 2022-2023
As a reminder, increases in basic pensions depend on the State. On the other hand, the revaluation of the supplementary pension – paid by Agirc-Arrco for 13 million withdrawals from the private sector – is decided by the plan’s board of directors, bringing together employers’ organizations and trade unions. The percentage retained for 2022 will be revealed on Thursday 6 October. The Agirc-Arrco supplementary pension should increase by 5.1% on November 1, 2022.
3 increases in a few months
Example with a pension close to the average pension for a former private sector employee: 1,500 euros in net pension at the start of 2022whose 1000 euros paid by the Cnav and 500 euros by Agirc-Arrco.
- First increase in September 2022this retirement received 1080euros from the cnavthanks to retroactive revaluation the July pension (paid on August 9). And 500 euros from Agirc-Arrco. That is 1580 euros in total.
- In october, return to a normal amount for pension insurance: 1040 euros from the Cnav on October 7, which corresponds to the 4% increase, and 500 euros from Agirc-Arrco on October 3. That is 1540 euros in total.
- Second increase in novemberwith the revaluation of the complementary Agirc-Arrco. If she is indeed 5.1%then the payment of the additional payment scheduled for Wednesday November 2 will be 526 euros, that of the Cnav scheduled for November 9 of 1040 euros, for a total amount of 1566 euros.
- Third increase in January 2023: the basic pension will probably increase by 0.8%that is 1048 euros. For a total of 1574 euros with the complementary Agirc-Arrco. That is 4.9% better than the 1,500 euros at the start of 2022.
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