If countless questions still remain unanswered after the military junta took power in Niger on July 26, this injunction suffered from no ambiguity. By summoning the French ambassador to pack up and leave the territory within 48 hours on Friday evening, the Nigerien soldiers formalized their wish to reduce their diplomatic relationship with Paris to a trickle.
Officially, it was, among other things, to sanction “actions of the French government contrary to the interests of Niger”. A very evasive formulation which struggles to hide the real objective pursued by the military regime, namely to put pressure on French diplomacy which still refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the new power in place and continues to call for the return to office of the president Mohammad Bazoum.
“I don’t think the military wants to engage in a showdown”
And this Monday, while the ultimatum has expired since Sunday evening, Ambassador Sylvain Itté is still in Nigerien territory. In the morning, during his traditional speech to ambassadors, President Emmanuel Macron defended his retention in office and followed the statements of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs which, as of Friday evening, assured that “the putschists [n’avaient] no authority” to request the departure of Sylvain Itté. What raise questions around the short-term future of the latter.
And in particular the fate that could be reserved for him, with regard to the snub that French firmness represents for the Nigerien regime. But according to Gérard Vespierre, geopolitical analyst and founder of the web media “Le Monde Décrypté”, it is unlikely to imagine the military carrying out major abuses against the French representative. “We are not in the situation of the American embassy in Tehran”, he said to Europe 1, referring to these hostage-taking of American diplomats who followed the Iranian revolution of 1979. “There is the GIGN on the spot, the French army too. I do not think that the soldiers wish to engage in a showdown. It would give a bad image of them internationally”, recalls the specialist, summing up his thoughts thus: “They don’t don’t have the muscles to face the whole world”.
The embassy deprived of food and electricity?
“If there were to be an attack on the physical integrity of the ambassador, this would automatically lead to a reaction from France”, supports Caroline Roussy, director of the Sahel observatory, carried out by Iris (Institut de relations internationales and strategic). Niamey is therefore walking on eggshells. “I think there will be a ‘dont act’ on the part of the junta, because they cannot expel the ambassador manu militari. That would cause the French security forces to intervene and that is not what she is looking for”, insists Gérard Vespierre. However, the showdown with Paris is not about to weaken and the negotiations to find a way out of this political impasse are expected to be tough.
According to Gérard Vespierre, the daily life of Ambassador Sylvain Itté may not experience any significant changes… apart from a few details. “They (the putschists) can annoy him on the communications, the telephone lines. There can be some chicanery of this kind”, he advances. Caroline Roussy confirms: “I could see that they had taken measures so that the embassy no longer has electricity and that it is no longer transported with food”, she reports. Obstacles that Paris should manage to circumvent, reassures Gérard Vespierre.