It’s a statement that makes you sit up and take notice. Christian Drosten, German virologist, told the Berlin daily Tagesspiegel: “In my estimation, the pandemic is over.” With this sentence he explains his conclusion that the “first endemic wave” is currently being experienced.
Jan Fehr is a professor at the Institute for Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention at the University of Zurich. In an interview, he explains why he is cautious about announcing the end of the pandemic.
SRF News: Is the pandemic over?
Jan Fehr: As long as there are global sources of danger, such as in China, I will be careful not to declare the pandemic over. The virus circulates heavily there and hits people with insufficient immune protection – a humanitarian disaster.
A pandemic is a world event – and Wuhan is a suburb of Zurich, so to speak.
A high infection rate also means that new variants can arise, which can also be with us quickly. A pandemic is a world event – and Wuhan is a suburb of Zurich, so to speak.
Is there a possibility that a new variant will come to Europe from China and replace Omicron as the dominant variant?
Mutations and also new variants will arise. The crucial question, however, is whether or not such a new variant can undermine our now robust population immunity. From today’s perspective, I judge that to be unlikely, but not impossible.
Legend:
Pricked out of the misery: Vaccination is an effective measure against Corona.
KEYSTONE/Ti Press/Samuel Golay
How do you assess the situation in China?
In China, people are apparently trying to go from lockdown to rigorous opening at high speed, with the result that the virus hits a population with insufficient immunity with full force. However, establishing solid immune protection in the population takes time. The path with well-dosed, gradual easing of the measures took us around two years. One can imagine a safety net that is becoming ever more closely intertwined.
Then the endemic phase would also be possible.
I agree. It may also be important to clear up a misunderstanding here. Endemic does not mean that the virus is generally harmless, but that it no longer causes any major damage at the population level because extensive immune protection is in place. In the endemic, the ecosystem – in the case of Corona this would be humans – has come to terms with the virus.
Malaria is also an endemic disease but still deadly.
As a small example: Malaria is also an endemic disease, but still deadly – especially for the vulnerable group, which in this case are small children. So infections still occur in endemics, but serious illnesses or even deaths are much rarer.
Corona is not the only disease that is burdening the health system.
Right, and we need to realize that. A year ago we were still wearing masks, but this winter it is influenza or the RS virus that are causing us problems. Depending on the situation, wearing a mask can still make sense. But here, too, we have to maintain a sense of proportion so that we can achieve normalization with broad immune protection.
In addition, there are always several factors to consider in the equation: psychological and social factors – and not just an infection process. We must always keep this overall picture in mind. And if we exclude the second wave, we have found a good middle ground in Switzerland that needs to be continued.
Pascal Studer conducted the interview.