The surprise announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron was a financial opportunity for Matthew Russell: “I bought French sovereign debt in the days that followed”says this bond manager at M&G, an asset management group. This London-based trader, who is not very familiar with the details of French politics, made a simple calculation: French interest rates had then increased by about 0.3 percentage points, to 3.3%, offering a better yield, while the risk still seemed very low to him. “The European Union will not let France default”he believes, betting that the European Central Bank (ECB) will always be ready to intervene in the event of a panic.
The anecdote recalls a fundamental truth: there are (almost) always buyers to be found on the financial markets. But not at any price. In this logic, the prospect of a government led by the National Rally or an unobtainable majority is not about to cause a default or bankruptcy of France. On the other hand, it risks costing it much more. Since the dissolution, the gap between French and German rates (the “spread”) has already gone from 0.5% to 0.75%, reaching even 0.8% on Monday 1er July after the announcement of the results of the first round of legislative elections.
“The danger is that of a long process of erosion of public finances”believes Gilles Moëc, chief economist of the Axa group. In this light, we can recall two recent shocks in Europe: the financial panic caused by Liz Truss in the United Kingdom in October 2022 and the long Italian skid of 2018-2019 when the 5 Star Movement was in power.
The example of Liz Truss’s misstep in the United Kingdom
On September 23, 2022, the government of Liz Truss, the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, presented the largest tax cuts since 1972. The financing of this gift? It would be completed thanks to growth, which would soar to 2.5% per year, he assured. On the financial markets, no one believed it. In one week, interest rates on British bonds soared from 3.1% to 4.5%. It would take the intervention of the Bank of England, the cancellation of most of the measures and the humiliating resignation of Liz Truss after forty-four days in office to put an end to the storm.
“However, the tax gift was not that big. [il était de 50 milliards d’euros, auquel il fallait ajouter des aides aux factures d’énergie, soit 85 milliards d’euros d’emprunts supplémentaires, l’équivalent de 2,3 % du PIB] »recalls David Owen, British economist and founder of the consultancy Saltmarsh Economics. Liz Truss’ real mistake, he believes, was the cavalier way in which she announced her budget.
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