The West has so far promised Ukraine financial and military aid worth over CHF 83 billion. However, there is a gap between announcements and actual support. And the demand in Ukraine is constantly increasing.
The West is continuously supplying war-torn Ukraine with weapons, food and money. But deliveries are being delayed and the country needs more and more.
Whether in Brussels, Elmau, Madrid or Lugano, Ukraine has received numerous other expressions of solidarity and aid promises from the West at the summit meetings of the past few weeks. 41 have more than 83 billion Swiss francs States pledged to the war-torn country since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24. Most of this relates to military support, but economic pledges and humanitarian assistance have caught up in recent months.
The leader in absolute terms is the United States, which has pledged more than CHF 43 billion to Ukraine so far. The USA is a pioneer, particularly when it comes to military goods, and regularly puts together aid packages in the hundreds of millions.
Just last week announced the American President Joe Biden, again to deliver military goods worth around 800 million Swiss francs to Ukraine; including new surface-to-air missile systems and anti-artillery radar.
The United States is followed at a considerable distance by Great Britain with around 6 billion francs in aid commitments, Germany with almost 4 billion francs and Poland with promised support of 3 billion francs. However, countries such as Germany and Poland, together with the other 25 EU member states, are still paying a share of the around 16 billion francs in aid that the alliance has promised Ukraine.
Furthermore, not all countries publicly disclose the extent to which they are supporting Ukraine with arms, food or loans, or what supplies have arrived in the country.
In the war of attrition with Russia, however, military equipment from the West is particularly important for Ukraine’s survival. However, there are gaps between the public commitments made by the federal states and the actual deliveries.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) documented since the beginning of the war, the publicly visible military, humanitarian and economic aid to Ukraine and has compared the publicly detailed commitments regarding military goods with their delivery. The IfW found that among the major donor countries, the USA and Germany pledged significantly more than they actually delivered.
According to the data, only around 40 percent of the deliveries published in detail by the American government have so far arrived in Ukraine. Of the German commitments, 46 percent have actually been delivered. On the other hand, military goods arrive most reliably from Poland, Great Britain, Canada and Norway.
Poland has a large arsenal of Soviet weapons. Since the beginning of the war, Warsaw has continuously passed on weapons and ammunition from these stocks to its neighbors. The weapons are quickly ready for use there not only because of the short delivery routes, but also because the Ukrainians are familiar with the systems. The situation is similar with the deliveries of thousands of shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles, surface-to-air missiles or drones that the British, Canadians or Norwegians have sent to the war zone. Already since 2014 British and Canadian troops are training the Ukrainian armed forces in the use of these weapons.
Training on new weapons takes time – and so does bureaucracy
The situation is different with the heavy weapons that western Ukraine has promised since the beginning of April. While long-range heavy artillery or multiple rocket launchers are now increasingly deployed in Ukraine, it sometimes takes weeks, until they are delivered to the Ukrainian border and until the soldiers are trained in their use. A logistics chain for the replenishment of spare parts and ammunition still has to be established.
How long the delivery and training can take became clear not least with the American multiple rocket launcher Himar. The American government announced that it would be broadcast at the beginning of June, but it was not until four weeks later that the first battery actually arrived in the war zone. According to President Biden, by mid-July all eight promised himarssystems have arrived in the combat zone.
But even if all the promised artillery pieces and rocket launchers are delivered, the West will still fall well short of the Ukrainian government’s demands. A few weeks ago, they had reported a need for 1,000 artillery pieces and 300 multiple rocket launchers, among other things, and probably also in order to put pressure on the West in the negotiations.
The discrepancy between commitments and deliveries is not only due to the logistical complexity of the heavy weapons, but also because many European countries themselves do not have large arsenals from which they could easily hand over weapons, including enough ammunition, to Ukraine. In the case of Germany, these practical problems also come up against complicated procurement bureaucracy.
This is how Estonian government officials showed themselves at the beginning of April compared to the news magazine “Spiegel” that in Germany 18 intermediate steps are necessary for each weapon release, while in Estonia there are 2 or 3. Indeed, exports to Ukraine are not only in the Ministry of Defense checked, but also pass through the Chancellery, the Foreign Office and the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate. The latter is also responsible for the export of weapons that are ordered directly from the German armaments industry. This also requires government approval.
There is also a problem with economic aid
While the soldiers at the front urgently need weapons, the rest of the population is also slowly running out of money. Exports have collapsed, the economy has stagnated, while Ukraine’s wartime defense spending has skyrocketed. That is why the central bank recently had to help finance the state. This is urgently dependent on financial aid from abroad.
In the west, however, problems with arms procurement and supply seem to have left economic support behind. Although the EU, the USA and other countries have promised Ukraine, among other things, direct household aid of over 25 billion francs, according to IfW data, only around 6 billion francs have been paid out so far.
The loans and guarantees that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have pledged to the country, among others, amount to around 6 billion Swiss francs. Considering that Ukraine needs CHF 5 billion a month just for wages and pensions and basic services, Western economic aid falls far short of Ukraine’s needs. It also exacerbates the already precarious humanitarian situation in a country bombarded daily by the Russian army.
