Who will face Erdogan?

For more than a year, six Turkish opposition parties have been working on a common strategy for the upcoming elections. Behind this is the realization that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can only be defeated with united forces.

The Turkish head of state is still the most popular politician in the country. In view of the serious economic turmoil, however, he can no longer get the approval of more than 50 percent, which is necessary for re-election in the presidential system he created. If all the main forces pull together, the opposition calculates, it could be enough for a change of power.

The time to nominate a candidate is pressing

The six parties have defined some economic policy cornerstones, and above all they have agreed to abolish the presidential system, which places all power in the hands of the head of state, in the event of an election victory. However, it is still unclear who will be the top candidate against Erdogan. The question is gradually developing into a crucial test for the alliance.

Three people in particular are in the conversation: the leader of the largest opposition party, CHP, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, and his two party friends Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas, the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara. Meral Aksener, who could also make claims as leader of the second major Kemalist force, IYI, dropped out months ago.

There isn’t much time left to make a decision. The exact election date is still unknown. However, the election must take place by June 18th. A date in May seems most likely at the moment.

Popularity boost for Imamoglu after court ruling

The recent court ruling against Imamoglu has given new impetus to the debate. On December 14, the Istanbul mayor was sentenced to two and a half years in prison for a trifle and given a ban on politics. The verdict is not yet legally binding.

The obviously politically motivated verdict gave the charismatic opposition politician a further boost in popularity. The day after the verdict, tens of thousands of his supporters gathered in front of the mayor’s office in Istanbul. Aksener also publicly supported Imamoglu when she visited him shortly after the verdict and hugged him warmly.

Commentators critical of the government wrote that the judges had finally decided on the choice of candidates. The tenor was that Erdogan was taking legal action against Imamoglu, showing how dangerous the Istanbul mayor could be for the president. Imamoglu is the strongest candidate.

Little support for Kilicdaroglu

But Kilicdaroglu does not want to admit defeat. Negotiations in the background continue. Next year’s elections are the last chance for the 74-year-old to crown his long career with a great success. As head of the strongest opposition force, he would actually be the most obvious candidate.

The always friendly but not very charismatic politician is not very popular in the country. In the right-wing camp of the opposition, there is disagreement about what tends to be left-wing positions. As a member of the Alevi minority, he offers additional targets for Erdogan and his core Sunni-conservative constituency.

Recently, Kilicdaroglu also came under pressure because of a strategic blunder that the old hand shouldn’t have made. In order to allay conservative voters’ concerns about a possible change of power, Kilicdaroglu announced that the right to wear a headscarf would be enshrined in law.

Erdogan gratefully took up the topic and proposed a corresponding constitutional reform, which he enriched with passages to strengthen the traditional family. In doing so, he deliberately drove a wedge into the oppositional alliance, where moderate Islamic parties are represented alongside progressive forces.

Mayor or Presidential Candidate?

Imamoglu and Yavas always do better in polls than their party leader. However, an incumbent mayor would have to resign from his post to run for office. As a result, control of the relevant city, Ankara or Istanbul, would revert to Erdogan’s AKP. In view of the great importance of these cities, that would be a high price to pay.

Yavas is also concerned that, as a nationalist politician, he would have problems mobilizing the Kurds for himself. Without the Kurdish votes, a victory over Erdogan is not possible. With regard to Imamoglu, on the other hand, some suspect that if the ambitious young politician wins the election, he will take pleasure in the power of the presidency and postpone the abolition of the presidential system.

Erdogan also draws his legitimacy from elections

And the verdict? Although Imamoglu rarely has to serve his sentence, he is threatened with being banned from engaging in political activity. Should the judge’s verdict become final before the election, his candidacy would become null and void.

“But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t any leeway,” says political scientist Berk Esen. “Despite the authoritarian tendencies in our country, the president still derives his legitimacy from elections. Erdogan must win against his challenger. It’s not enough to just disqualify him.”

The political observer Selim Koru from the Edam think tank once described the initial situation with an example from popular culture. In the final scene of the Hollywood film “Gladiator” there is a duel between Emperor Commodus and Gladiator Maximus. Before the fight, the Despot assassinates Maximus but does not kill him. He wants to defeat the popular gladiator in front of everyone in the arena.

The fact that Maximus manages to kill the emperor despite his injury fits with most observers’ assessment that the election will certainly not be fair, but the result is still open. The fight for the office of Turkish President will be fought with tough hats. The question remains who will step into the ring against Erdogan.