William Molinié, edited by Gauthier Delomez
modified to
06:57, April 05, 2023
China considers Taiwan as part of its “internal affairs” and is preparing, with military demonstrations, for the possibility of a major engagement in the Pacific. But the capabilities of his army do not allow him at this stage to consider a conquest without suffering very heavy losses.
The stability of the Taiwan Strait is one of Emmanuel Macron’s main ambitions. The head of state is going to China on Wednesday to discuss the subject, which is eminently sensitive for Beijing, which considers Taipei to be part of its “internal affairs”. However, the Great Pacific War is not for tomorrow. In reality, China is currently unable to invade Taiwan.
Beijing is not militarily ready
According to a French intelligence source, there are two main reasons for this state of affairs. First, China will wait to draw all the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine, which it considers today as a laboratory. Then Beijing is simply not ready.
China’s ambition is to become the world’s leading army by 2049. For three decades, it has begun its modernization but it does not yet compete in the air with the Americans. However, a possible landing in Taiwan will necessarily be supported by hunters. This is why Beijing’s priority today is on the air force.
The hypothesis of a blockade around the island
The Chinese know that the topography of the island is unfavorable to them, with muddy beaches, mountain ranges at 3,000 meters altitude or thick jungle, which would complicate a possible amphibious landing.
Large-scale military exercises follow one another to circumvent these geographical difficulties in the long term. According to a French soldier familiar with the region, “the most likely scenario would be that of a blockade around the island”, but not before 2030. One way to test the American reaction before, perhaps, considering a large-scale military maneuver around the 2050s.