Why is this so complicated?
There is a huge arithmetic confusion in the European Championship qualification
November 14, 2023, 1:30 p.m
It is not yet clear what the field of participants will look like at the European Football Championship next summer in Germany. There are still 15 tickets available for the final qualifying games, nine nations have already been confirmed. But it could be complicated because of the rules. An overview of the current status:
The mode: Basically: In addition to host Germany, the first two teams in the ten qualifying groups qualify. Three more tickets will be awarded via the play-offs in March. The participants in these mini-tournaments are determined based on the rankings from the previous Nations League season.
Group A: Spain and Scotland can no longer be pushed out of the first two places and are therefore certainly at the European Championships.
Group B: France is already assured of qualifying as group winners. If the Netherlands wins their next qualifying game against Ireland on Saturday, the 1988 European champions will no longer be able to take part in the European Championship. Greece, which, like the Elftal, currently has twelve points and has played one more game, would definitely be in the play-offs in that case.
Group C: The English around Bayern Munich’s star striker Harry Kane have secured the starting place for Germany. Behind them there is a duel between Ukraine (13 points) and European champions Italy (10). Because the Squadra Azzurra played one game less than the Ukrainians, the final decision can only be made in the direct duel on the last matchday in Leverkusen (November 20th). If Italy defeats North Macedonia three days earlier, a draw will be enough in the “final”.
Group D: While Turkey (16 points) can safely plan for the European Championships, Wales and Croatia (ten points each) are fighting for the second direct qualifying place. Since the Welsh won the direct comparison, they would qualify with two wins against Armenia and the Turks. World Cup semi-finalists Croatia have to play against Latvia and the Armenians. The latter have seven points and only have theoretical EM chances.
Group E: Albania (13 points) can safely qualify with a draw in Moldova on Friday. A victory for the Poles against their rivals, the Czech Republic, would also be enough. The Czechs (eleven points) are there if they beat Poland and Moldova doesn’t win against Albania. Robert Lewandowski’s Poland (ten points) are dependent on help as the play-offs are looming.
Group F: Belgium (17 points) and Austria (16) have already reached the finals.
Group G: As league leaders, Hungary (14 points) is the top candidate for a European Championship place and only needs one more point. Serbia (13) is also unlikely to be intercepted by the third-placed Montenegrins (8), who have played one game less.
Group H: Slovenia and Denmark (19 points each) have the best chances for the European Championship, but are not through yet. The top teams now meet, with the winner certainly qualifying. However, Kazakhstan (15) is lurking and could challenge the Slovenians to the final on the last match day.
Group I: Israel (11 points) suffered a bitter setback in the 0-1 defeat in Kosovo on Sunday, Romania (16) and Switzerland (15) now have good chances of a European Championship ticket. All three top teams still meet in direct duels.
Group J: Cristiano Ronaldo and the Portuguese stormed to the EURO with eight wins from eight games. Behind them, Slovakia (16) can book their ticket with a draw against Iceland. Luxembourg (eleven) and the Icelanders (ten) need victories to continue dreaming of one of the top two places. However, at least the play-offs await them.
The playoffs: The three remaining EM tickets will be awarded via three mini-tournaments. In three paths of four teams, the winners of the Nations League groups in leagues A, B and C will each play one participant in the semi-finals and final. If a group winner – such as Spain – has already qualified for the European Championships, the team with the next best placement in the Nations League rankings moves up.
According to the current status, Croatia, Italy, Poland and Estonia would play a European Championship ticket in Path A. The Estonians would move up as the best team in League D because all other teams in League A would qualify directly or be in the play-offs. In path B, Finland and Bosnia-Herzegovina are safely in the play-offs. Israel is also at least seeded for the play-offs, but can also make it straight away. Fourth place currently goes to Iceland. Erling Haaland’s Norwegians, who can no longer qualify directly, only have a small chance of making the play-offs. In path C, Georgia is certainly playing in the play-offs – Greece, Kazakhstan and Luxembourg are also there now. However, the latter trio still has a chance of qualifying directly.