Bitcoin has not said its last word?- Since the start of the year, risky assets have recovered. Indeed, the Bitcoin experienced a rise from close 50% since the start of 2023. For its part, the S&P500 increased by 20%. While SEC intends to tackle Paxos Regarding Binance USD (BUSD) Issuance, Could Bitcoin and Risky Assets Rebound? Will the dollar continue to weaken? This is the Weekly Macro Point!
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Bitcoin Could Rebound at Institutional Bias
THE Bitcoin (BTC) blocked at the resistance at $24,200. The price fell more than 10%. yet the dynamic stay bullish. Indeed, for the moment, the course tries to install a lower, higher than the previous one. To confirm, it will need to close above $24,260.
The price having blocked at 24,200 dollars, it is now heading to the next strong support at $20,500. The course is located the level of institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) trending up. These moving averages could act as dynamic support. Also, the price of Bitcoin could rebound at the level of the bearish trendline. This one made resistance several times, it could be a support.
To confirm the bullish momentum, buyers will need to manage to break the resistance at $24,200. If this scenario plays out, a move back to the next resistance level at $31,000 seems possible. Attention ! Sellers could push up to the neck line of the “W” at $18,400.
The momentum is bullish. The RSI is still moving above the bullish trendline. We will have to continue to see a bullish momentum with bottoms and rising tops.
In the short term, Bitcoin was moving in a range between $22,500 and $23,900. The rack was broken.
The course evolves at the level of a bracket at $21,500. To start rising again, it will be necessary to relaunch a bullish momentum in the short term. For that, buyers are going to have to push to close above $22,100. Also, it will be necessary to return to the range and evolve above $23,900 to confirm the bullish momentum. If the support is lost, the price could return to the level of the next support at $20,700.
The RSI is very close to confirming a bullish divergence in 4 hours. This could allow the price to return to the resistance level at $22,500.
Risk off: the dollar in indecision, gold could rebound
The dollar is at the level of the bearish institutional bias
The dollar must continue to fall for risky assets to become attractive again. Cryptocurrencies are one of the risky assets. The dollar is inindecision and the course is currently at the level of bearish institutional bias.
To confirm the downtrendit will require a rejection at the 9 and 18 moving averages.ideal would be news fall with a fence below 100.8 points. Indeed, this would mark a new low and continue to chain lows and descending highs (red arrow).
In case of bouncethe dollar could then quickly find itself at the level of the next resistance at 105.5 or 108.5 points. THE momentum is always fragile For now. We must continue to observe bottoms and tops descending on this indicator.
Gold could rebound to $1,860
I’gold is bullish momentum since the double bottom marked with the close above $1,730. He has recently been rejected in the shorts reload area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement), just below the resistance at $1,970. However, the price could rebound at the level of the 9 and 18 moving averages.
To confirm the bullish momentum, it will be necessary to close above $1,960 and break the top of the range at $1,970. It will be necessary avoid to mark a double top at the top of the range. The course is located at the bullish institutional bias. It could act as a support. In the event of a deeper drop, the price could reach the next support at $1,800.
THE ROI is breaking the bullish trendline. This is a first sign of weakness at the momentum level. Buyers may be running out of steam. In the event of a rebound, it will be necessary to watch carefully if the momentum draws bearish divergences.
Against Bitcoin, gold is losing ground.
When the pair is bearish, it benefits risky assets. On the other hand, when the pair is bullish, risky assets suffer.
The GOLD/BTCUSDT pair was in uptrend since the end of 2022. It shows signs of restlessness well materialized by the change in trend at the level of the institutional bias. The trend should be confirmed with a rejection at the level of these moving averages in the days to come. A feedback the level of weekly support would be positive for risky assets, like Bitcoin and altcoins.
THE momentum seems change dynamics in the medium term. We should continue to see momentum with descending troughs and peaks.
Could the US market continue to grow?
The S&P 500 must close above $4,195
The price of the S&P 500 is struggling to get rid of the resistance at $4,100. We would have to close above the last high at $4,195 to continue the bullish momentum.
The S&P 500 has the possibility of returning to the shorts reload area located between $4,300 and $4,500. This area could act as a dam. Traders could take profits. Indeed, it is an area conducive to selling when the price is in a downtrend.
If there is a rejection at the resistance level at $4,100, the price could head towards the next support at $3,900. The RSI is close to the bearish trendline. It would have to be broken to regain strength on the buyer side.
NASDAQ stalls at double resistance at $12,700
At the moment, the NASDAQ is struggling to break the weekly resistance as well as the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
There dynamic East bullish short term. Indeed, the price managed to close above $12,165, confirming the momentum. It remains to get rid of the dual resistance. In the event of a rebound, the price could reach the shorts reload zone between $14,350 and $15,400.
The RSI is moving above the bearish trendline. The momentum is in the hands of the buyers. We must continue to mark troughs and ascending peaks.
THE bitcoin fails currently at the level of resistance at $24,200. However, the price is above the bearish trendline and at the level of the bullish institutional bias. A rebound could occur in the coming weeks. For that, the dollar must continue to be bearish. A drop below 100.8 points would allow the bearish momentum to continue. I’gold could rebound against the dollar, but it shows first signs of weakness against bitcoin. The GOLD/BTCUSDT pair seems to be initiating a change in momentum, which would be a good sign for cryptocurrencies. We will have to continue to observe the trend on this pair in the weeks to come. THE US market blocks at rweekly resistorsbut the price would potentially rebound, as the trend remains bullish in the short term.
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