Coming break for cryptocurrencies?- Ethereum is on the rise almost 35% since the beginning of 2023, but the price could take a break. Altcoins are recovering, but Bitcoin seems to be attracting capital. The bearmarket is not over yet? Can altcoins rise again? Can Ethereum outperform Bitcoin? Let’s analyze the graphs!
Return of the bullrun? On-chain volumes are plummeting
With this recent strong risewe can again see the word bull run on the networks, which had left our vocabulary since the beginning of the year 2022. Admittedly, Bitcoin (BTC) is on the rise in 2023, but it still seems too early to talk about a return of the bull market. On Ethereum, we see that the transaction volumess have been in free fall since June 2021:
We can observe that the same phenomenon had already happened in 2018. Indeed, the volumes increased until January 2018, the date of the start of the bearmarket for cryptocurrencies. From early January 2018 to the end of 2022, volumes were very weak on Ethereum. In 2021, volumes began to increase, like the price of the second capitalization of cryptocurrencies. When’euphoria is present in the cryptocurrency market, volumes increase and when the fear is present and that the actors have left the ship, the volumes fall.
We see that the trend is very largely bearish on the on-chain volumes, it will probably be necessary to wait for a new uptrend on this kind of metric to find a clear upward trend on the price of Ethereum.
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Back to $1,350 for Ethereum?
From the fence above $1,350Ethereum is back in bullish momentum short term. However, we must not forget that the course is stuck in a tidied up Between $1,000 and $1,900 :
Recently, the price broke the bearish trendline which had been rejecting the price since August 2022. This added to the change in momentum shows that the buyers are present. However, it very often happens that the neck line of the “W” is retested by the market. It is therefore quite possible to review the price of Ethereum at $1,350 in the days or weeks to come. The price has certainly changed momentum, but the last peak to $1,674 has still not been exceeded. However, in a bullish momentum clear, the troughs and peaks are ascending.
Whatever happens, the price remains under the weekly resistance at $1,900and under the bearish trendline initiated in November 2021. As long as this is the case, the price will remain fragile and the momentum will not be clearly bullish. There is still a long way to go for the Ether coin.
The momentum is encouraging. The RSI seems to have exceeded the resistance in place since November 2021. To confirm this trend, the RSI will have to continue to develop above this resistanceand make one support. Since the change in momentum on the course, the RSI is above the bullish trendlineand as long as this is the case, the buyers have their hands on the momentum.
Ethereum: the ETH/BTC pair in indecision
The last weekwe were talking about a bullish signal for the ETH/BTC pair. Indeed, the pair has changed short-term momentum with the close above 0.076 BTC :
The course is forming a trianglesign that the lower volatility and that buyers and sellers neutralize each other. This kind of construction leads to volatility, but it is difficult to say in which direction. The dynamic is bullish in the short term, but the price still has not marked a high above the previous one (0.079 BTC). The pair is stuck under the weekly resistance at 0.08 BTC. So the two scenarios are:
- Breakout of the triangle from above: in the event of a close above 0.079 BTCthe course could well break the weekly resistance with volatility.
- Breakout of the triangle from below: the price could then head down intermediate support from range to 0.066 BTC.
The momentum broke the bearish trendline, it could bounce on it in the days to come. It will be necessary to continue to show bottoms and ascending tops. To begin with, a fence above 61 of RSI would allow the momentum to continue. The pair is in a tidied up for almost two years, could she finally choose a clear direction for the months to come?
Bitcoin attracts capital, danger for altcoins
Bitcoin dominance is climbing, and it’s not not necessarily a good sign for altcoins :
The price rebounded at the level of the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18). Bitcoin dominance is on the rise, the king of cryptocurrencies attracts capital. In this article, it was explained why altcoins could suffer in the event of a rise in Bitcoin dominance. If the price of Bitcoin goes up, the altcoins will also go up, but they will be less efficient than Bitcoin. If the price of Bitcoin falls, altcoins could fall more sharply. In view of the momentum on Bitcoin dominance, the price is heading towards the 44% resistance.
The momentum is bullish, the troughs and peaks are ascending. Also, the RSI is moving above the bullish trendline.
The capitalization of altcoins changes dynamics
Thanks to this upward movement, the capitalization of altcoins changes dynamics :
Altcoin capitalization rebounds at the level of the support at 440 billion dollars and fence above $495 billion. Thanks to this closure, the dynamic is once again bullish short term. Attention, a retest of the neck line of the “W” is possible. This would test the resistance that has become support at 480 billion dollars.
The momentum picks up again rise. It looks like the RSI has managed to break above the resistancewe will have to continue to develop above this zone.
If buyers have shown themselves recently on the cryptocurrency market, the bearmarket is not necessarily over. As we have seen, the volume of transactions on Ethereum is in free fall, it will be necessary to regain a bullish momentum to see the presence of new entrants on Ethereum. Ethereum could take a break and come back to the level of the “W” neck line at $1,350. The momentum changes in the short term, but price remains below the weekly resistance at $1,900 and below the downtrend line. Against Bitcoin, Ethereum has the possibility of definitively breaking out of the range, but Bitcoin has not said its last word. Indeed, the dominance of Bitcoin is increasing and this does not necessarily bode well for altcoins. Despite everything, the altcoins are starting to rise again and the market capitalization is back above the important resistance at $480 billion.
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