Will Lula emerge stronger from the violent protests?

The impression was deceptive. From the beginning of the year, the capital Brasilia seemed to be experiencing political routine again for a long time. Because of the long election campaign and the heated domestic political climate, this had not happened for a long time. But since the inauguration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on New Year’s Day, the new 37 ministers had introduced themselves. Lula spoke to the many visiting heads of state, negotiated budgets and posts with Congress, and planned his next trips abroad. There was a general sense of relief that Brazil’s political life had returned to normal, as political expert Bruno Carazza says.

However, exactly one week after Lula took office, the ghosts of the past caught up with Brazil. An estimated 3,000 radical supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the government district. They devastated Congress, the Presidential Office and the Supreme Court. They called for a military coup to remove Lula from office. “For two years we feared that there could be a storm like the one on the Capitol in Brazil,” says Carazza. “Now it’s happened.”

Storm in Brasilia

The secretary of defense has to keep the military happy

The police looked on and gave the attackers the field. Miraculously, there were no serious injuries or deaths. After three hours, special police forces ended the chaotic activity – and the rioters withdrew to where they had set up a kind of vigil two months ago, after Bolsonaro was voted out: in front of the garrison of the army high command in Brasilia. There they obviously enjoyed the solidarity and protection of those in uniform. The day after the violent protests, however, the government declared the camp illegal and dissolved it.

For two months, Defense Minister José Múcio refused to close the protest camps in front of army facilities – apparently so as not to provoke a conflict with the military. The majority of the protesters are peaceful, argued Múcio, whom Lula appointed as one of the first cabinet members shortly after the elections with the mission of improving relations with the army.

A complicated task. Under Bolsonaro, the military regained power for the first time since the military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985. Now it should be the task of the civilian politician Múcio to limit them back to their actual function, national defence. But he hasn’t gotten that far yet. Lula is said to have decided against declaring a state of emergency because the military would then have been deployed automatically. Because his loyalty doesn’t seem guaranteed.

Storming the government district is a real test for Lula

The military, as well as the numerous police corps, are still mostly behind the former Captain Bolsonaro – although he withdrew completely from the public after the defeat at the polls. On December 30, Bolsonaro then flew to Florida not to attend the inauguration ceremony, he said, but also, it was said in Brazil before New Year’s Eve, not to be held responsible for any excesses by his supporters. The fears have proven to be realistic.

The storming of the government district presents the Lula government with a first serious test: The government will now have to use a lot of energy – and political capital – not only to put the security forces in their place, but also to process the processes legally.

Paulo Pimenta, Minister for Social Communications, explained that among the rioters there were also those involved who had deliberately stolen digital information carriers, for example from the secret service rooms in the President’s Office. The perpetrators knew exactly what they were looking for, as Pimenta says. The minister explained that the organic material left behind by the demonstrators – traces of blood and faeces – would be used for DNA tests in order to convict the rioters. More than 1,400 radical Bolsonaro supporters have been arrested since the storming of government buildings.

The backers of the attackers are also being sought

But the backers of the action will also be tracked down, who would have financed the more than a hundred buses to cart the rioters to Brasilia or to feed them in the camps there for two months. There is constant talk of farmers and freight forwarders, who are traditionally among Bolsonaro’s supporters, financially supporting his radicalized supporters. Brasilia is on the edge of Brazil’s largest soy-growing region.

Democratic countries abroad came to Lula’s aid, as with the recognition of the election results in the runoff elections at the end of October: the USA under Joe Biden, France with Emmanuel Macron, and the EU with foreign policy chief Josep Borrell immediately assured Lula of their solidarity.

The question now is how Lula and his government will emerge from the orgy of violence in Brasilia. The chances are not bad that Lula will be strengthened by the attacks – especially from sectors of society that have so far been rather critical of the left.

The economy also unanimously condemned the attacks

This does not only apply to governors, senators or members of parliament loyal to Bolsonaro, who could now distance themselves from the right-wing populist because they do not want to be associated with the chaos of the storming of the government district. This could also apply to the economy. The leading Brazilian associations of industry, banks and corporations have unanimously condemned the violent actions in Brasilia – although some of the interest groups have shown great sympathy for Bolsonaro in the past and Lula was by no means one of their dream candidates in the election campaign.

The investment bank JP Morgan, for example, expects that the events could cause Lula to drift more to the left than previously expected, because the right-wing opposition close to Bolsonaro is now weakened. But Congress continues to be dominated by centrist parties, which, in theory at least, represent an anti-radicalization force.