Will Pokrovsk fall before the end of the year?
US experts: Peak of Russian offensive will soon be reached
October 4, 2024, 4:24 p.m
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US experts expect that Moscow’s offensive efforts in Ukraine will weaken in the coming weeks. The reason is the high losses. Nevertheless, Estonian intelligence fears that the city of Pokrovsk could fall this year.
US military experts expect the ground offensive by Russian troops in eastern Ukraine to soon weaken. “The current summer offensive is expected to reach its peak in the coming weeks or months,” wrote the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its latest report. After that, the pace of Russian attacks will slow down.
The reason given by the observers was that the troops planned by the Russian army leadership for the offensive had been decimated; Reserves have been exhausted. The army must divide its forces between the attacks in Donbass, the stalled offensive in the Kharkiv region and the defense of Ukrainian troops in the Russian Kursk region. “Russian forces do not have the personnel and materiel to sustain intensive offensive efforts,” the report said.
The Russian advance has actually been underway since October 2023, when the Ukrainian summer offensive in the south got stuck. Recently, the Russians have been gaining ground more and more quickly. Ukraine had to abandon the long-defended outpost of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region. Nevertheless, the ISW experts classify these as limited tactical successes for Russia. A strategically important breakthrough at the front has not yet been achieved. However, the Ukrainian defenders are also exhausted.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported 142 attempted Russian attacks today, 30 of which were in the direction of the long-contested city of Pokrovsk. According to the authorities, Russian troops are now seven kilometers from the outskirts of the city. Estonian intelligence believes it is possible that Ukrainian defenders could be forced to abandon the strategically important logistics hub at the end of the year.
“Towards the city of Pokrovsk, which is at the center of the attacks, Russia has advanced between one and two kilometers in the last week,” said the deputy head of the Estonian secret service, Janek Kesselmann. the Estonian public broadcaster ERR. If the intensity of the attacks continues, the Ukrainians would probably have to retreat and take up “slightly deeper positions.”