Book. The hypothesis of a war in the Formosa Strait has been considered in all its aspects for decades, both by academics, political strategists and the military, because its consequences would be disastrous not only for Taiwan, but also, potentially, for the entire world. It is the object of Taiwan, a Chinese obsession (Hémisphères, 184 pages, 20 euros), by Jacques Gravereau, Asia specialist, professor at Science Po and HEC, and founder of the HEC Eurasia Institute.
For China, it would be a war of “reunification”. This is the reaffirmed ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping, even if force is always presented by Beijing as a last resort. For Taiwan and the entire Western world, this would be a “annexation”the island having never been conquered or ruled by the Chinese Communist Party since its victory in mainland China in 1949.
The hypothesis of a war between China and Taiwan has gained urgency and plausibility since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, which was posed in almost identical terms: a unilateral annexation from the country’s point of view. attacked and from the West, but a reunification from the point of view of the aggressor country, with its immediate corollary question: which other countries would be drawn into such a conflict?
Geostrategic context
The book, written in an alert style and punctuated with invectives against the Chinese central power, begins with a few historical reminders illustrating the fluctuating status of the island, inhabited for centuries by an indigenous population, but regularly occupied by immigrant or colonizing populations. The author mentions in passing an attempted annexation of Taiwan by the French fleet in 1884. He also details the ultra-rapid militarization, between 2014 and 2016, of several islets in the South China Sea, transformed into Chinese military bases, and underlines that the two issues, China Sea and Taiwan, are intrinsically linked.
The first chapters serving to set the scene are followed by those of political fiction, in which Jacques Gravereau reviews three hypothetical futures. From cold, described as green, where the status quo prevails in a peaceful context, to hot, described as red, where a conflict breaks out. The country is currently in the orange zone, located between these two extremes.
The last part of the collection (“Worst-case scenarios”) presents several simulations where the war is triggered, inevitably by China, which “never had an alliance or allies”, observes Jacques Gravereau. But where does the war begin? Does China have an interest in first taking over the small islands very close to the Chinese mainland? What would be the outcome of a massive bombardment, followed by a landing? More than for these various scenarios, it is above all for the detailed presentation of the geostrategic and economic context in which this conflict would take place that the work deserves to be read.
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