Ukraine is preparing for winter – securing electricity and heat supplies would be difficult enough in peacetime. But now massive Russian attacks on the energy infrastructure are to be expected again. However, Ukraine now has some advantages.
People in Ukraine don’t have good memories of last winter. With an average of 50-60 missiles per week, Russia attacked energy infrastructure between October 2022 and March 2023. Long-range drones of Iranian origin were added. Although the Ukrainian energy system held up, nuclear power plants had to be shut down at times to prevent damage to the power grid. It was also not uncommon for entire districts to remain without electricity, heating and tap water for several days, even far away from the front, such as in Kiev or Lviv. The new normal: A life with so-called scheduled power outages with three hours of power and three hours without power.
Now October is just around the corner again – and history is already repeating itself, at least in part. As was the case a year ago, the first, relatively small attacks on energy objects took place in September. After the first significant attack on the energy infrastructure in six months on September 21st, almost 400 towns were temporarily left without power. The Ukrainian military intelligence service HUR has also been reporting for some time now that Russians have increased their attempts to clarify the status of Ukrainian energy facilities. And because the big wave of attacks began last year on October 10th, it is expected that it could start again at any time.
In terms of electricity supply, it was a quiet summer, although there were occasional outages on very hot days due to increased use of air conditioning and the general instability of the grid. But now the demand for batteries, generators, candles and power banks is increasing again. The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy wants to have 80 percent of its plan to renew the electricity system fulfilled by the end of September. However, this is more about emergency repairs and not about complete reconstruction. According to experts, this could last until 2029 or 2030, even under peaceful conditions.
Hardly any direct attacks on nuclear power plants
For security reasons, the Ukrainian state is keeping a low profile about the true extent of the damage from last winter. However, a UN report shows that at the end of April only half as much electricity was produced in the country before the start of the Russian attack in February 2022. The output of thermal power plants even fell by around 68 percent. And while the Ukrainian nuclear power plants still produced more than half of the electricity, the loss of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which was shut down and under occupation, was extremely noticeable.
In addition, Russia has hardly attacked the important nuclear power plants directly, especially since it is very difficult to inflict significant damage on the objects with cruise missiles – after all, they were built with the possibility of nuclear war in mind. The Russians therefore targeted the transformers of the substations, which are built in Ukraine near the war zone and which take a long time to manufacture even abroad. According to the same UN report, 42 of 94 critical transformers were damaged or destroyed.
This makes it all the more difficult to assess how well Ukraine is actually prepared for winter, says Andrij Herus, chairman of the Energy Committee in the Ukrainian parliament. According to him, the mere figures for electricity generation, i.e. the dramatic decline, say little. Because of the wave of refugees and the loss of part of heavy industry, electricity consumption has also fallen sharply.
But what matters is whether substations are able to deliver electricity to end customers. “All the equipment can work, but in some places you have three transformers in reserve and in others only one,” the MP emphasized to Ukrainian media. “In the event of new attacks, this will play a key role. The Russians know full well that the generators take a long time to produce.”
Russia may no longer have as many missiles
However, what has definitely improved in Ukraine is anti-aircraft defense. Western systems such as Patriot or IRIS-T have proven to be very effective. However, Ukraine is simply too big to protect the entire country with anti-aircraft defenses, no matter how good they are. On the other hand, while Russia will probably not be able to fire as many missiles as in the previous wave, combat drones originally from Iran are now being produced in Russia itself. These are often used specifically not to damage objects, but to overload the air defense system so that cruise missiles and rockets have an easier time.
Therefore, Ukraine is working not only on improving anti-aircraft defense, but also on technical fortifications for specific energy facilities. However, Ukrainian energy operators do not want to comment on the details. Another important factor is the weather. The mild winter of 2022/2023 helped massively in surviving the attacks. Even without the Russian shelling, Ukraine would have to switch to scheduled power outages at temperatures between -5 and -7 degrees and below, estimates Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Zentr Razumkova think tank. The attacks from the neighboring country would further aggravate the situation.
In order to possibly prevent this, Ukraine is also relying on deterrence. The new Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announces that he wants to respond to possible attacks on the energy infrastructure by Russia. In fact, Kiev has more opportunities for this this time. While Ukraine is not allowed to use Western weapons on internationally recognized Russian territory, this does not apply to occupied Crimea, whose manageable and vulnerable energy system is better known to Kiev. So if Russia starts attacking again, it is not entirely unthinkable that one or two Storm Shadow class cruise missiles could fly at power plants in Crimea.