Without Soyuz, should space Europe turn to SpaceX?

Sanctions and counter-sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine are stalling several European satellite launches. Operator OneWeb has already turned to SpaceX, while EU agencies and the ESA try to change their planning. Because Ariadne 6
is still waiting…

The German industrialist OHB has obviously already taken a position.

Only one rocket is missing…

For almost a month, the debate has been agitating institutions, manufacturers, operators and insurers: how to replace Soyuz? In response to European sanctions, Russia withdrew its teams from the Guiana Space Center, while flights operated on behalf of OneWeb on Russian cosmodromes were also abruptly halted. For private customers, the alternative is simple: turn to another reliable commercial partner, preferably one that would have orbital launch slots in 2022. Not so easy to find…

Japan does not have this flexibility in flights, India is in the process of reorganizing its sector and is evolving slowly, and Europe is in the process of transitioning to its future launchers. There remains the United States, which welcomes these prospects with open arms… Even when they are their competitors. Thus OneWeb announced yesterday to transfer the launches to complete its constellation of internet connectivity from Soyuz to SpaceX! Unimaginable more than a month ago.

Desperately looking for European pitcher

The thorniest case is actually that of public institutional launches for the benefit of European states, the European Union and the ESA. Two pairs of Galileo satellites were to take off with Soyuz this year, not to mention the EarthCare (ESA) satellites and the Euclid space telescope in early 2023, or the French defense satellite CSO-3. If the latter will obviously wait until the arrival of Ariane 6, this represents a large number of satellites which will probably not be able to take off in 2022… Unless they buy the services of a foreign operator.

The European agency will submit its report in April with recommendations, but manufacturers are already pushing in different directions. The echoes report in particular the case of OHB (Germany), the reference manufacturer of the current Galileo satellites, which would push for the four most urgent units to be sent thanks to SpaceX, then the following ones on its own launcher in development with its subsidiary-start- reference up, RFA (Rocket Factory Augsburg). The current crisis could represent a windfall for NewSpace players… but for the majority of them, their launchers are still a long way from their first take-off.

The thorny problem of postponing flights

The other option is obviously to wait for the entry into service of Ariane 6. The large European launcher is late, which is not an exception in the space industry (its equivalents around the world are too). , but falls at the wrong time in the face of the invasion of Ukraine.

Indeed, while the first flight is unofficially “sliding” towards the first quarter of 2023 with an already very tight schedule for its first year in operation, it is unlikely to postpone all the flights planned for 2022 with Soyuz, unless we accept to put them under glass, for some until mid (or the end) of 2024.

And there’s no need to think about Ariane 5: all its last flights are reserved, while the small Vega launcher and its successor Vega C have their own supply and medium-term future problems.

Source: Challenges