“The new year will be more difficult than the one we leave behind. » On January 2, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, opened the ball with these dark words on the American channel CBS. On Tuesday, January 10, the World Bank, the other major institution in Washington, followed suit, seriously revising its growth forecasts downwards.
Now, it estimates that the world economy should grow by only 1.7% in 2023, against 3% still expected in June, after 2.9% in 2022. Excluding periods of recession, this would be the lowest rate of growth recorded for three decades. “This sharp slowdown is expected to be widespread, with forecasts revised downwards for 95% of advanced economies, whose growth is not expected to exceed 0.5% in 2023, and nearly 70% of emerging and developing countries. »says the World Bank.
This is more pessimistic than the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which forecast world growth of 2.2% in November 2022, and than the IMF, which bet on 2.7% in October. 2022. “Our central scenario does not foresee a generalized recession, but the fragilities are such that it would take little for some countries to plunge into it”add the experts of the World Bank.
energy crisis
In detail, the euro zone, hit hard by the energy crisis, will not be far from contraction: despite the good resistance of employment, growth should be zero this year, after 3.3% in 2022. The United States is unlikely to grow by more than 0.5% in 2023 – the lowest non-recession growth rate since 1970 – and China by only 4.3%. Excluding the latter, the gross domestic product (GDP) of all emerging and developing countries should grow by 2.7%, after 3.8% in 2022.
“We find ourselves in a configuration that we have not seen for decades: a slowdown in the global economy caused by policies” – Gilles Moëc, chief economist of Axa
This slowdown is largely the result of the war in Ukraine and its consequences – inflation of raw materials, even if energy prices have eased in recent weeks, disruption of production chains, uncertainties – as well as the slowdown of the big three engines of the world economy, European Union, United States and above all China. “The Middle Kingdom’s brakes mainly affect major commodity exporting countries, particularly in Africa and South America, as well as East Asian countries integrated into Chinese production chains”details the institution.
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