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The Chinese President dreams of a strong and powerful China. But that dream has receded into the distance.
Xi Jinping has a dream. The dream is called “revival of the Chinese nation”. The Chinese President wants to turn China back into the Middle Kingdom, prosperous and powerful. In concrete terms, the country is to be the dominant world power by the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic in 2049: economically, politically and militarily.
Just a few decades ago, China was considered the poorhouse of the world. Today it is already the second strongest economy in the world. And in the past decade under Xi Jinping, the country has continued to make giant strides.
Dominance at sea, in space and in the markets
The country has invested billions in new technologies and is now a leader in areas such as artificial intelligence, big data and e-commerce. Instead of just copying, China now has a self-interest in better protecting intellectual property. Finally, last year the government announced that poverty had been eradicated in the country.
Legend:
The Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning in July 2017.
REUTERS/Bobby Yip
But China also caught up with the United States militarily. The Chinese Navy now has more warships than the US Army. And this year the third own aircraft carrier was launched. More are planned. The Americans have eleven.
Legend:
Three Chinese astronauts after landing in Mongolia in September 2021. Previously, they had brought parts to the Chinese space station.
China Daily via REUTERS
Under Xi Jinping, China also rose to become a space power. China made the first landing on the far side of the moon, sent a probe to Mars and is currently building its own space station.
Population supports the President’s course
At the last party congress five years ago, Xi Jinping thought he was on the home straight and announced: “Comrades, today we are closer, more confident and more capable than ever to achieve the goal of national revival.”
China in transition
His Chinese dream is also well received by the general public. It coincides with the needs of many Chinese people. “In the past, we were very poor for quite a long time,” says pensioner Ru Yonghua. “Now we’re going to get a little rich. Our life has improved.”
We used to be poor, now we’re getting a little rich.
But then Covid came and abruptly interrupted this Chinese dream. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the government under Xi Jinping has relied on a tough zero-tolerance policy. Officially, no country has the pandemic under control better than China. The downside of this: Even a few Covid cases can send entire neighborhoods, cities and provinces into lockdown. The result is great uncertainty. Transport and supply chains are constantly being interrupted, investments are lacking and youth unemployment is rising.
Departure from zero-Covid-strategy not foreseeable
What this means for the economy can be seen on a small scale in a neighborhood in Shanghai. It is known for its many restaurants. Because of two positive cases, everything was sealed off for seven days. This also affects the surrounding shops, which are open normally.
“People are afraid to come to this area. They don’t know what’s going on,” says one shopkeeper. He hopes the lockdown will be over quickly. Because his business is doing worse than ever since the outbreak of the pandemic two and a half years ago.
A change of course is not foreseeable. Xi Jinping is stuck in an impasse on the Covid issue. For a long time, China’s leaders have celebrated themselves for their zero-Covid strategy. Xi Jinping sees this as a superiority of the Chinese system.
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A woman is tested for the Covid-19 virus in Shanghai in October 2022.
REUTERS/Aly Song
If he now declares the strategy to have failed, he loses face. His reputation as an infallible ruler suffers. If he continues the zero-tolerance policy, the economy will only come under more pressure. And the existing structural economic problems are getting worse.
Xi is cracking down at home and abroad
But in order to realize his Chinese dream, Xi Jinping does everything right. He doesn’t tolerate criticism. Under him, surveillance and control has greatly increased. The Internet and social networks are being censored more rigorously than ever before.
In addition, Xi Jinping’s tough course has increasingly isolated the country internationally. With the crushing of the democracy movement in Hong Kong, his threatening gestures towards Taiwan and the human rights violations in Xinjiang, he went on a confrontational course with the West. Instead of a respected world power on an equal footing, China is an outsider.
Nothing stands in the way of a third term
But despite the many problems, Xi Jinping is likely to secure a third term in office as general secretary of the party and thus also as head of state, which is unique in the history of the party.
Originally there was a term limit: After two times five years it was over. But Xi Jinping has changed the constitution and can now theoretically remain at the top for the rest of his life.
Legend:
Xi Jinping during a state visit by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in October 2019.
REUTERS/Florence Lo
There is no alternative to Xi Jinping. He eliminated all potential political opponents. And the population has no say in the decisions of the party anyway.
Xi Jinping will continue his tough domestic and foreign policy course in the future. Even if that puts his dream of being the dominant world power in the distance.