As expected, Xi Jinping has been confirmed as General Secretary of the CP in China. Aggressive nationalism coupled with harsh repression will define his third term. The West needs to dress warmly without falling into paranoia.
His followers from the CCP Standing Committee applaud Xi Jinping (front right).
Under Xi Jinping, China has said goodbye to the past. For the first time since Mao Zedong, the founding saint of the People’s Republic, a leader with almost unlimited power rules in the Middle Kingdom. Over the weekend, the 20th People’s Congress confirmed Xi Jinping as General Secretary of the Communist Party (CP). The son of an influential top official who was later overthrown shouldn’t just rule the giant country for another five years. In 2018 he overturned the constitutional term limit for presidents. Xi thus created the option for a lifetime mandate.
Ideology replaces pragmatism
Xi’s power play and his research style were not only well received in the nomenklatura. But he has long since neutralized his opponents, for example putting them behind bars through corruption proceedings. Xi Jinping eliminated the principle of collective leadership, introduced by the reformer Deng Xiaoping, as well as economic pragmatism. Ideology permeates almost every area of society. It is also symbolic how Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao, was apparently towed out of the hall against his will on Saturday.
Xi’s retention of power may be interpreted as a sign of continuity. The West now knows what to expect from it: aggressive nationalism and the will to push America off its pedestal as the number one world power. The continuity at the top of the party conveys a deceptive stability. It simmers beneath the surface. The population has had enough of Xi’s totalitarian zero-Covid policy, which is destroying economic livelihoods and repeatedly forcing millions of residents into lockdown. Many Chinese are worried about their assets because of the serious real estate crisis. And the previous growth model, which was heavily based on government investment in infrastructure, no longer works.
The state apparatus chokes off the smallest expressions of dissatisfaction from the people with repression. However, if Xi does not succeed in fulfilling the central promise of the CP – economic recovery – he will come under pressure himself. Unresolved domestic political problems increase the risk that Beijing will act more aggressively to the outside world – also to distract attention from the difficulties in the giant empire. Taiwan in particular is likely to feel the effects of this. The 69-year-old wants to bring the island republic under his control, if necessary by force. This was also confirmed by Xi Jinping at the party congress in Beijing. Attempts at intimidation and threatening gestures are likely to increase, and not only towards Taiwan.
tightrope walk of the West
Many Western countries follow China’s behavior with reluctance, but also with a certain indecisiveness, not least with regard to business interests. In its plans for an attack on Taiwan, China is carefully analyzing how America and its allies are preparing for a possible escalation. The Western camp will only be taken seriously if it succeeds in closing ranks and building up a credible military deterrent.
The increasingly frosty relationship between China and numerous Western countries means that established forms of cooperation are being called into question. Recently, for example, the German secret service warned that there was too much trust and naivety in science towards China. There is no doubt that research institutions must pay greater attention to security concerns, and in economic relations it is important to avoid one-sided dependencies. However, Western societies must not fall into paranoia – after all, this is what distinguishes them from autocracies.