ZEW index rises again
Stock market professionals are more confident about the economy
02/15/2022, 12:11 p.m
The economic and political uncertainties are increasing – but so is the economic optimism of the stock market experts. The reason is the easing that is emerging on the Corona front. This should primarily benefit the service providers.
Despite the Omicron wave, stock market professionals are again more optimistic about the economy in Germany. The barometer for the assessment of the next six months rose by 2.6 to 54.3 points in February and thus for the second time in a row, as reported by the Mannheim Center for European Economic Research (ZEW). Economists had expected an increase to 55.0 points. The location was also rated better than last time, but not quite as good as expected.
“The economic outlook for Germany improved again in February, despite growing economic and political uncertainties,” commented ZEW President Achim Wambach. The experts surveyed expected an easing of the corona-related restrictions and an economic recovery in the first half of 2022. They continued to assume that inflation would ease. However, this is likely to fall more slowly than originally thought. “As a result, more than 50 percent of the experts are now anticipating an increase in short-term interest rates in the euro area over the next six months,” explained Wambach.
In 2021 as a whole, the German economy grew by 2.8 percent. But between October and December, the economy slowed by 0.7 percent compared to the summer quarter. For 2022, economists are expecting more growth overall than in the previous year, but the Corona variant Omikron should still be a burden for companies and consumers at the beginning of the year. If this subsides, the economy should pick up noticeably. The federal and state governments should pave the way for further easing of the corona restrictions on Wednesday.
“The prospect of spring and a easing of the virus activity give hope for an improved economic situation,” said chief economist Thomas Gitzel from VP Bank. Service providers in particular could look forward to better business again in the spring – above all hotels and restaurants.
According to the ZEW, 173 analysts and investors were interviewed to create the index.