(AOF) – Walgreens Boots Alliance is expected to rise in pre-market on Wall Street after JP Morgan raised its recommendation from “neutral” to “overweight”. We believe that a new era begins today for shares of WBA, with Tim Wentworth assuming the role of CEO” declares the broker. “While there is clearly work to be done, with a new health-focused management team and a lowered but credible bar, WBA has the opportunity to overcome several obstacles in the coming quarters and improve its performance.”
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Two major challenges for the sector
The turnover of distribution brands increased by 6.6% in the third quarter of 2022 according to the IRI panelist. Such a performance had not been recorded since the confinements of 2020. However, since the end of September, volumes have declined following the increase in prices. The results of French players, rather spared until now, should therefore suffer. Moreover, in the United States, Walmart and Target have issued warnings about their results.
Another challenge: logistical disorganization. According to NielsenIQ data, the out-of-stock rate increased further on the shelves to reach 5.8% at the end of October. This represents a shortfall of 3.5 billion euros since the start of the year. According to Système U, these disorders have never been observed for more than fifty years. The reasons are multiple: both climatic, geopolitical, logistical, inflationary, and also linked to the behavior of consumers, who stock certain items. On the other hand, the strike in the refineries seems to have had little impact because the brands managed to organize themselves.
Learn more about the Pharmacy sector
Biotechs put to the test
These companies are suffering from a much less favorable economic cycle, which is reflected in particular by a drop in venture capital financing of start-ups. These companies are therefore obliged to carry out layoff plans. Added to this is a much more restrictive regulatory framework. First, in the United States, measures linked to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could have a strong impact on the margins of stakeholders. Indeed, from 2026, the federal Medicare program will be able to renegotiate the price of drugs marketed for nine years (chemical) or 13 years (biological), with discounts that could range from 35 to 60% for biotechs. Likewise, in Europe, with the new drug regulations presented in Brussels in April, the duration of patent protection will be reduced if the innovative treatment is not marketed in all member countries within two years.