by Michel Rose, Andreas Rinke and Krisztina Than
PARIS/BERLIN/BUDAPEST (Reuters) – The announced victory of Giorgia Meloni and his far-right party, Fratelli d’Italia, in Sunday’s early legislative elections in Italy could mark a turning point in the balance of power within the European Union, with a populist alliance inclined to turn to the “friendly” regimes of Hungary and Poland, believe European officials.
The moment is all the more delicate for the community bloc as it is faced with the economic and diplomatic fallout from the conflict in Ukraine, on its eastern flank, and one of the worst energy crises in its history, coupled with a crisis of the cost of living.
If Giorgia Meloni – who is part of a post-fascist heritage while minimizing the Mussolinian credentials of her party – wins on Sunday with her conservative allies as the polls predict, Italy will swing all the way to the right for the first time since the Second World War.
The former youth minister, who is 45, would be the first woman to lead a government in Italy, with the support of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini’s League.
After the unprecedented breakthrough of the extreme right in the Swedish legislative elections of September 11, concerns are emerging in Brussels, Paris and Berlin about the constitution of a “populist front” in Europe capable of hindering European decisions in the face of the challenge of inflation and the specter of recession, unanimity being the rule in many areas.
“All eyes are on Rome,” a European official told Reuters.
With the forthcoming resignation of outgoing Council President Mario Draghi, Europeans, and particularly French President Emmanuel Macron, are losing one of the most fervent advocates of European integration who embodied stability in an uncertain geopolitical and economic context.
His profile – he is a former governor of the Bank of Italy and ex-president of the European Central Bank (ECB) – reassured the financial markets.
Giorgia Meloni has not revealed all her intentions at the community level, even if she says she is ready to govern in harmony with restless allies, and nervousness is spreading to Europhiles.
“THE MOST DANGEROUS WOMAN IN EUROPE”
For Rolf Müntzenich, deputy of the German Social Democratic Party, whose positions regularly echo those of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Giorgia Meloni is a threat to Italy and the European Union.
“It is a party which in no way distances itself from fascism and Mussolini”, he declares.
The German weekly Stern thus titles, on the front page, on a photo of the president of the Party of European Conservatives and Reformists: “The most dangerous woman in Europe”.
Emmanuel Macron told several European officials that the prospect of the coming to power of “Brothers of Italy” worried him, according to several sources familiar with the exchanges, even if he expressed his “optimism” in public.
In Budapest, Giorgia Meloni, who has already met nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, is seen as a potential ally in the Hungarian standoff with Brussels over democratic values.
“Orban will probably be able to count on the support of Italy for the settlement of its disputes with the European Union”, judges Zoltan Kiszelly, analyst within the pro-government think tank Szazadveg.
In Poland, a country which also maintains conflicting relations with the European executive and regularly joins forces with Hungary, the Italian scenario arouses enthusiasm.
“The right-wing parties have never been so popular. This is a chance to correct European politics”, welcomes Zdzislaw Krasnodebskia, elected from the Law and Justice party (PiS), the main formation of the conservative coalition in power in Warsaw. .
The Euroscepticism of Giorgia Meloni, who has campaigned on immigration, lower taxes, lowering the legal retirement age and traditional family values, is no secret.
However, if she espouses many of the views of Viktor Orban, she refrained from demanding the lifting of sanctions against Russia as the president of Fidesz and expressed her public support for Ukraine.
Aware of European reluctance towards her, she immediately launched a charm offensive aimed at Italy’s partners in a video in French, English and Spanish.
“ABSURDITIES”
“I read that a victory for the Brothers in Italy in September would be a disaster, mark an authoritarian turn, lead Italy to leave the euro zone, and other nonsense. None of this is true” , she points out in the video.
Giorgia Meloni is in direct contact with Mario Draghi and the Italian administration to ensure a smooth transition and avoid a new crisis in Italy, say European officials and analysts.
The idea is to “make her understand the importance of a certain number of files, that she cannot do anything. She says that she listens a lot”, according to Marc Lazar, specialist in Italy at the Montaigne Institute.
In Brussels, officials are wondering how the probable future President of the Italian Council will comply with the European Union’s historic recovery plan, which conditions aid on national reforms and rigorous management of public finances.
Concern is high on the issue of the Italian debt, one of the main projects of the future government, which represents 150% of GDP, and the soaring interest rates.
The French president should meet in the coming days with the German chancellor on the situation in Italy, we learned from a French government source.
Members of the outgoing administration in Rome have urged Paris to measure up to Giorgia Meloni to avoid any public confrontation lest she turn to Orban.
“What the Italians told me in Rome was: ‘don’t throw her into the arms of Hungary’,” the same source reports.
During the campaign for the 2019 European elections, Emmanuel Macron opposed Matteo Salvini by calling for “building a grand coalition of progressives” against “those who want to destroy Europe through nationalism”.
If the American administration is attentive to the Italian ballot, it relativizes European fears.
“The narrative about the Italian elections that ‘the sky is collapsing’ does not correspond to our forecasts”, summarizes a member of the administration.
(Report Michel Rose, Andreas Rinke in Berlin and Krisztina Than in Budapest; with the contribution of Belen Carreno in Madrid, Jan Lopatka in Prague, Heather Timmons in Washington, Crispian Balmer in Rome and Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska in Warsaw; French version Sophie Louet )