Analysis. These are two figures that illustrate the shift underway in the global economy since the start of the Covid-19 crisis a year ago. In its April forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts exceptional economic growth of 6.4% for the United States in 2021, while it forecasts a disastrous year for sub-Saharan Africa. The increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in this region is not expected to exceed 3.4% in 2021, the lowest in the world. In other words, the pandemic is dangerously deepening the inequalities between rich and poor countries, and halting the rise of emerging countries.
This crisis is nothing like the previous one. In 2008, rich countries were ravaged by the financial crisis while emerging countries came out with only a few scratches. Today, it is the opposite: the United States should return to its pre-crisis GDP level by the end of the year, while recovery should last for years for emerging countries, or even up to four years for countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The crisis could push 150 million people, mainly in developing countries, into extreme poverty by the end of 2021.
At the origin of this great divergence, several reasons are mentioned by economists: there are of course the vaccination campaigns at several speeds, the ability of certain economies to better adapt to containment thanks to digital technology, or even the degree dependence on sectors affected by health restrictions such as tourism. Above all, developing countries do not have the same resources or the same administrative capacities as rich countries to protect themselves from the crisis and revive their economies.
Ingenuity
With few resources, however, they have multiplied social protection measures. The World Bank counted 1,414 in 215 countries in December 2020, against only 103 in 45 countries a few months earlier, in March 2020. A challenge in countries where the poor – migrants without address, workers in the informal sector and citizens without documents identity – often escape social safety nets and cannot be found in government databases.
The authorities had to be resourceful, like the Nigerian government, which transferred money to those who top up their prepaid mobile accounts with very small sums – an indicator of poverty like any other. This crisis was also an opportunity to experiment with programs passed through the “random sampling method” used by the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL). This laboratory, co-founded by Nobel Laureates in Economics Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, pleaded, in February 2021, for the widespread adoption of money transfer programs which, according to them, have proven effective in improving the economy. food security and the well-being of the poor. According to the World Bank, at least 1.1 billion people on the planet have benefited, a figure which increased by at least 240% during the crisis.
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