A year after the Capitol invasion, “American democracy is sick today”

On January 6, 2021, as the certification session for Joe Biden’s election began on Capitol Hill, nearly 2,000 Donald Trump supporters forced their way into the building, forcing parliamentarians to flee and crippling the democratic process. for a few hours. The climax of an American political life polarized like never before, will these events have a lasting mark in the history of the country? What evil are they the symptom of? Political scientist and journalist, Marie-Christine Bonzom has covered seven American presidential elections, and gives us the keys to understanding what is shaking American political life underground.

Joe Biden had promised to unite the Americans, divided as never before. Has he succeeded?

Joe Biden had indeed promised during his inauguration (January 20, 2021, editor’s note) to unite the country, but it is a clear failure. Today he has tumbled so badly in the polls that he and Kamala Harris are now as unpopular as Trump at the same time in his presidential term. And when we propose a hypothetical new duel between Trump and Biden to the Americans, we realize that the former would win, albeit narrowly, if the presidential election took place today. It is a fundamental failure for the current president, but beyond that, the American democracy today is sick of its two big dominant parties, the Democratic party and the Republican party.

Even given the winner, Trump is in fact disowned by all Americans. When asked recently what two words they no longer want to hear in 2022, Americans polled said “Covid” and “Trump”. We must keep in mind that, despite the record participation in the 2020 poll, we had the same proportion of Americans who did not vote, as those who voted either for one or the other. (with more than 33% abstention, editor’s note). This figure also indicates the disinterest of the Americans for this duel.

What is the cause of this crisis in American democracy?

Americans have long been, but even more so today, disgusted with politics, and especially with the offer made to them: they have never been so few to call themselves “Democrats” or “Republican”, and conversely, never so much to say “independent”, that is to say to want other parties and other candidates. More than 80% of them say they want a major reform of their political system, even complete for 42% of them. These rates are much higher than those observed in Great Britain, Canada or France.

Indicators have been showing the same phenomenon for years, but it is more acute at the moment. It is a bankruptcy of both parties, Democrats and Republicans, very deep, even if we only noticed it from the Trump years – which was a symptom of it. The hyper-polarization that characterizes this crisis of American democracy, in fact benefits the two major parties, beneficiaries of the status quo. They’ve locked the system down, even the American media almost only interviews Democratic or Republican candidates, regardless of the election. This is how we end up with candidates like Biden and Trump, which the majority do not want.

What place do you attribute, in this crisis, to the symbol of the invasion of the Capitol, seat of the American Democracy?

The invasion of Capitol Hill by Trump supporters was an unprecedented event, right in the heart of Washington. But this is also the symptom of this extreme polarization, of which this moment was a paroxysm. As had been the campaign itself in 2020, especially in terms of verbal abuse. There is a deep crisis in democracy, and this invasion symbolizes it, but this must urgently challenge the political class which controls access to power. However, it seems that neither of these two parties wants or is interested in opening up and reforming the system. The level of discontent has not stopped rising, since the false justifications given by George W. Bush for invading Iraq in 2003. The gap has only grown since then between public opinion and its representatives.

How were the Democrats going to go about bringing the Americans together, if that was really their plan?

It is not clear, precisely, one can wonder about the sincerity of this project to bring the Americans together. Because neither Biden, nor his administration, have really taken steps towards reconciliation. It took months for the Democratic president to even pick up the Republican Minority Leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, on the phone. There was no dialogue at this level for months, which had never been seen.

In addition, Joe Biden was monopolized by many other files, for which his management is extremely criticized by the Americans: the economy, inflation, the migratory crisis at the Mexican border… And especially the disaster of his management of the withdrawal Afghanistan, which was a turning point in his presidency. It was from then that he really collapsed in the polls. On the Covid-19 front, his promise of a normal life from July 4 has also not been kept. It is difficult to see how such a weakened and disowned president could do to suddenly become the reunifier of the American nation. The mid-term elections come in November, and it is likely that he will suffer a significant setback.

Is the hypothesis of a return of Donald Trump credible?

At the moment he is not officially a candidate, but he suggests that he could run. As public opinion stands today, he would have the massive support of the Republican base, far ahead of other potential nomination contestants. But Trump is completely disowned by the independents, who make and break the US presidential election – and who for that matter do not want a Biden candidacy in 2024 either.

At the level of the electorate as a whole, nearly 60% say to pollsters that they do not want either. It is disastrous to come to this, but indeed, it is the sign of an American democracy today sick. But I fear that, for their own survival, the two big parties will not have an interest in looking at this patient.