The Duma is asking the Russian President to recognize the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics” in eastern Ukraine as states. Will Putin comply? He could escalate the conflict further, but would not play a trump card.
It wasn’t just Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin that made the headlines on Tuesday. Despite all doubts, the partial withdrawal from the Ukrainian border announced by Moscow caused a slight sigh of relief. A third event attracted less attention, wrongly so: The Russian parliament, the State Duma, called on the president to decide on the recognition of the two breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. But it is unclear whether this will happen.
In addition to Crimea, which Russia has already annexed, the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics” bordering Russia play a central role in the conflict between the two states. In 2014, Russian-backed separatists took control there and broke away from Kiev. Since then, a Moscow-backed war has been raging against the Ukrainian army, which according to UN estimates has killed 14,000 people so far. Despite several attempts to stop the fighting, there is an almost daily exchange of gunfire.
Russia supports the two regions militarily and financially, has integrated them into its own economic system, distributes Russian passports there in large numbers – and thus creates facts. However, it is far from clear that Putin will comply with Parliament’s wishes. A recognition of the two “People’s Republics” by Russia would raise the conflict to a new level. Accordingly, Kiev warned against such a step: “In the event of recognition, Russia will de facto and de jure withdraw from the Minsk agreements with all the side effects,” said Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. The EU made a similar statement, and Scholz also pointed this out at the joint press conference with Putin.
The government in Moscow actually has little interest in burying the Minsk Agreement. According to experts, it favors Russia because it was closed in 2015, when Ukraine was severely weakened, fearing another Russian advance and therefore agreed to unfavorable terms. The agreement is also called Minsk II because it followed the short-lived Minsk Protocol (Minsk I) of 2014. Minsk II was negotiated in the so-called Normandy format by the then heads of state and government, Angela Merkel (Germany), François Hollande (France), Petro Poroshenko (Ukraine) and Putin (Russia). It was then signed by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group, which consists of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE.
Kiev speaks of “Moscow puppets”
The aim of the Minsk agreement was, on the one hand, to end the fighting between separatists and Ukrainian government troops. To this end, an immediate ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons and foreign soldiers and the creation of security zones were agreed. On the other hand, it was about finding a political solution to the conflict. For example, Kiev was to regain full control of the border with Russia, and elections in the breakaway areas and a Ukrainian constitutional reform were planned to give the Donbass regions more autonomy. Even though Minsk II was able to prevent the fighting from escalating, there has still not been a real armistice to this day. Other points of the agreement, such as elections and constitutional reform, have not yet been implemented.
Instead, Moscow and Kiev keep making serious accusations against each other. Moscow accuses Kiev of not fulfilling its obligations under the Minsk agreements and insists on elections in the breakaway areas and on direct talks between the Ukrainian government and the separatists. Kiev, on the other hand, does not want to get involved in such negotiations because this would amount to recognition – the representatives of the “People’s Republics” are seen as “Moscow puppets”. According to Minsk II, talks with Moscow are not planned because Russia does not see itself as a war party and is therefore not mentioned there – experts see a weak point in the agreement here.
There is also a dispute about the order of the points mentioned in the Minsk Agreement. While Ukraine makes a ceasefire and control of the border with Russia a condition of elections, for example, Moscow sees it the other way around: A ceasefire can only come about when the breakaway regions have received their special constitutional status.
Kiev’s objections are not unfounded: the Luhansk and Donetsk regions are heavily dependent on Russian aid, and the ruble is a common currency. By distributing passports to some 600,000 people, Moscow has slowly expanded and consolidated its influence in the area. Many pro-Ukrainian residents of the “People’s Republics” have fled to the west of the country. Kiev therefore doubts that there can be any free, open-ended elections at all.
Putin could ignite the next level of escalation
Even if these disputes can hardly be resolved, there have recently been tentative signs that talks could be moving again. The trigger for this is the massive concentration of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, which has raised fears of an invasion in the West. For the first time since 2019, there are meetings in the Normandy format, albeit without results so far. However, French President Emmanuel Macron recently described Minsk II as the “only way” to resolve the conflict.
Chancellor Scholz also relied on the agreed peace plan during his trip to Moscow. He stressed that the Normandy talks were another important format for resolving the conflict. He also welcomed the commitment of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to shortly submit three texts of Ukrainian legislation envisaged in the Minsk agreements on the special status of eastern Ukraine, on the constitutional amendment in relation to decentralization and on the preparation of local elections.
It is currently unclear whether this will bring about a breakthrough in the conflict over Donbass, or whether Russia will agree to the Kiev proposals. What is certain is that Moscow is unlikely to relinquish its influence in the breakaway regions. The Minsk agreement gives the Kremlin direct influence on the domestic politics of the neighboring country – which could prevent further turning to the West. If the “People’s Republics” were recognized, Putin would relinquish this trump card.
On the other hand, the request by the Duma always gives him the opportunity to create further facts – and to ignite the next level of escalation. The allegations that Putin made at the press conference with Scholz fit in with this: that there was a “genocide” in eastern Ukraine – which the German Chancellor firmly rejected. Moscow, as the self-proclaimed protecting power of all Russian-speaking people, could thus justify an invasion of the neighboring country. The Minsk Agreement would then be obsolete.