Their arrival in the province of Cabo Delgado, the scene of the largest industrial project in Africa and a jihadist insurgency, was decisive. Deployed in July 2021 in northern Mozambique when insurgents linked to the Islamic State (IS) had taken over the district of Palma, close to the future gas site of TotalEnergies, and the strategic port of Mocimboa da Praia, the Rwandan soldiers are succeeded in a few weeks in partially securing the province. The French company, which had to suspend its activities because of the threats, would now be on the verge of resuming its work.
Three months after the start of the counter-offensive, Paul Kagame came to Mozambique to congratulate his troops. “We have shown what we can do with limited resources, said the Rwandan President on September 24, 2021. The rebels have been warned, we will not let them come back to threaten the lives of Mozambicans. »
This intervention of 3,000 soldiers and police was partially funded by the European Union (EU) under the European Peace Facility, a mechanism to “to support partners in the fields of defense in order to prevent conflicts and strengthen international security”. The Rwandan soldiers thus benefited from an assistance measure amounting to 20 million euros, intended in particular for the transport of their troops and the purchase of equipment (tents, vehicles, generators, etc.).
“Disciplined” and “effective”
To defend the interests of TotalEnergies in Cabo Delgado, did France encourage this armed deployment? According to ARIA, a non-profit structure devoted to research on climate and energy-related subjects, the chronology of the meetings between Paul Kagame, his Mozambican counterpart, Filipe Nyusi, and Patrick Pouyanné, the CEO of TotalEnergies, the lets suppose.
“France was in favor of an agreement between Rwanda and Mozambique”, relates Benjamin Augé, author of the study “Mozambique: the security, political and geopolitical challenges of the gas boom” for the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI): “Filipe Nyusi’s will was also to limit the role of the SADC armies [Communauté de développement d’Afrique australe, dont des soldats sont aussi déployés dans la région] to reduce their influence. On this very particular terrain, he also had doubts about their abilities. »
On October 20, 2022, an EU note relating to the Rwandan intervention in Cabo Delgado specified that it could allow “the protection of political, security and economic interests”. “These assistance measures are aimed at consolidating peace and combating terrorism in Africa and elsewhere, explains Nabila Massrali, spokesperson for the European External Action Service, the EU’s diplomatic arm. When in December 2022, the European Council announced its support for the deployment of the Rwandan army in Mozambique, it announced other measures in favor of the Mauritanian armed forces [12 millions d’euros], Georgian [20 millions]Lebanese [6 millions] and Bosnian [10 millions]. There is always a very precise follow-up which makes it possible to control whether the funds are used as initially planned. Regarding Rwanda, it is about maintaining stability in Cabo Delgado. »
According to the NGO Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled), the jihadist rebellion of Ansar Al-Sunna, affiliated with IS, has caused nearly 3,300 deaths in four years, half of them civilians, and caused the displacement of 800,000 people.
“Rwandan soldiers are highly appreciated by the Mozambican population”, ensures the World the writer and former diplomat Jean-Christophe Rufin, author of a report commissioned by TotalEnergies on the socio-economic consequences of the Mozambique LNG gas project, in which the French hydrocarbon giant holds a 26.5% stake: “They are disciplined, effective in their interventions, and their barracks are very well managed. » In his report, the academician recommends on the other hand a revision of the relations between Mozambique LNG and the Mozambican defense forces, at the origin of numerous abuses, according to several local NGOs. “A dialogue has been initiated with the Mozambican authorities to this end”, let the World TotalEnergies.
The Central African precedent
In the short or medium term, could private companies from Kigali come and profit from the intervention of Rwandan soldiers? At the end of February, Radar Scape, a Rwandan company specializing in security, won an 800,000 dollar contract for the rehabilitation of housing. “The situation is quite unclear, nothing is settled yet, says Benjamin Augé. But after the success of the Rwandan army, TotalEnergies cannot refuse the Rwandans their share of the cake. »
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At the end of his speech in Mozambique, Paul Kagame told his soldiers that Rwanda should “now continue to protect and rebuild this country”. Two years later, his military diplomacy gave him a certain political influence on the spot, as in the Central African Republic. According to the Rwandan Ministry of Defence, 2,100 soldiers are currently deployed there as blue helmets and 1,200 others under a bilateral agreement to support and train Central African forces. In addition, more than a hundred Rwandan companies are currently registered in Bangui. They were only about twenty in 2019.
“The dual purpose of the Rwandan presence in the Central African Republic – ensuring security while seeking profit – could cause problems”, warns the International Crisis Group (ICG) in a report entitled “The growing role of Rwanda in the Central African Republic” : “Central Africans fear organized predation by Rwandan investors, who are seen as receiving unfair advantages from their government. This concern, reinforced by the secrecy surrounding Kigali’s economic operations, could lead to looting and violence against Rwandans. »
Does Kigali intend to reproduce in Mozambique the same economic model as in the Central African Republic? The benefits are still difficult to measure, but a real ecosystem is developing in sectors such as mining or construction. Companies such as Macefield Ventures, NPD Limited or Strofinare Mozambique are already established. They are all affiliated with the powerful Crystal Ventures holding company, whose assets are valued at $500 million. Essential in Rwanda, this conglomerate present in engineering, construction or consumer goods is the financial arm of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), the party in power since the end of the Tutsi genocide in 1994.