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Ankara has given the green light for Sweden to join the defense alliance. The only thing standing in the way is Hungary.
What is it about? Sweden has been struggling for 20 months to get the necessary ratifications from all NATO states in order to be accepted into the defense alliance like its Nordic neighbor Finland. 29 of the 31 Allies have long since given their consent, except Turkey and Hungary. The Turkish parliament voted with a large majority for Sweden’s membership in NATO on Tuesday evening. Following this approval, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also pledged to press ahead with Sweden’s accession.
Why is the confirmation from Hungary taking so long? It is unclear exactly when Hungary will officially agree to Sweden’s accession. “Only Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán knows that,” explains SRF Eastern Europe correspondent Sarah Nowotny. “It will take as long as it suits him – for tactical and other reasons.” This could happen in the next session of Parliament or take another two years. Viktor Orbán invited Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to talks this week, but Nowotny sees it as primarily a show. “The Hungarian government says that it is up to Sweden to try for Hungary, so to speak – an adventurous interpretation.” Actually, it’s simply a matter of the Hungarian parliament finally dealing with NATO accession.
How credible is Orban’s position? “Not very credible,” says Eastern Europe correspondent Nowotny. “You can see that in the breadth of explanations: First it was said that Hungary’s parliament had no time because they had to take care of themselves because they had so much to do to please the EU. After that, Parliament passed the most complicated laws within two days – and that worked. Later it was said that Sweden had insulted Hungary and therefore they couldn’t take care of it. And now they say that the Hungarian government can’t do anything about it because it’s all the responsibility of parliament.” The latter is an interesting reason, because: “One can say that in Hungary the separation of powers between parliament and government is at least very weakened. Or to put it another way: If the government wants something, then Parliament will do it too.”
What is the mood like in Sweden? “I would say cautiously annoyed,” says Northern Europe correspondent Bruno Kaufmann. “On the one hand, commentators are really openly outraged that Hungary is now delaying this story. And on the other hand, the political leadership is really used to the fact that you are actually almost witnessing a spectacle.” There is talk of a rollercoaster ride or a ladder game. But the Swedes have learned from it, explains Kaufmann: “You keep a cool head.”