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Also because of fewer births – China’s population is shrinking for the first time since 1961 – News

17 January 2023

China’s population shrank last year for the first time in over 60 years.
As reported by the national statistics office, at the end of 2022 there were 1,411 billion inhabitants, around 850,000 fewer people than a year earlier.
The birth rate in China was the lowest it has ever been, at just under 6.8 births per 1,000 people.

The steadily declining birth rate fell into the single digits for the first time two years ago. With 9.56 million births and 10.41 million deaths, the population declined for the first time last year, the statistics office in Beijing reported. According to these figures, the last time the population had shrunk was in 1960 and 1961 – as a result of the severe famines that followed the devastating industrialization campaign of the “Great Leap Forward”.

In addition, every fifth Chinese is already older than 60 years. At the same time, the population group in the statistically considered working age between 15 and 59 years continues to decline.

Legend:

At just under 6.8 births per 1000 people, the birth rate in China is the lowest it has been in decades.

IMAGO/Daniel Ceng Shou-Yi

This also marks a turning point for the economy: “China’s demographic and economic prospects are much bleaker than expected,” demographer Yi Fuxian assessed the new data. “China will have to adjust its social, economic, defense and foreign policies.” This means that India is likely to become the most populous country in the world this year.

National Bureau of Statistics appeased

The head of the National Bureau of Statistics, Kang Yi, told reporters that the public shouldn’t worry. Overall, the supply of labor continues to exceed demand. For his part, Yi Fuxian said the declining labor force and the concomitant decline in industrial capacity will further exacerbate high prices and inflation in the US and Europe. According to experts, the development will lead to slower economic growth, while government revenues will fall and debt will increase due to higher health and social costs.

China has long been suffering from a sharp decline in the birth rate and an aging population. The effects of the “one child policy” that has been pursued for decades are becoming more and more noticeable. The abolition of controversial birth control in 2016 led to a slight increase in births only for a short time.

Experts also see the high costs of housing, education and health care in China and the dwindling willingness to marry as the real reasons for the worrying development. The corona pandemic, which has been going on for three years, caused further uncertainties that are likely to have accelerated the trend.

In response to the declining birth rate and the rapid aging of the population, three children were also allowed in 2021. Since then, the government has also been trying to make it easier for young couples to care for children. This reduced the cost of education. Financial aid has been granted, and maternity and parental leave have been made easier, as many women fear that motherhood will negatively affect their careers.

The decline in women of childbearing age, which is defined as 25 to 35 years in China, gives an indication of further development: the number fell by around four million. The United Nations now assumes that the population will shrink by 109 million by 2050. That is more than three times as much as predicted in 2019.

Equality deficit as another reason

However, experts also identify problems in society, in particular deficits in equality between men and women, as a reason. According to the World Economic Forum, China ranks 102nd out of 146 countries in this regard. “The main reason why women don’t want to have children is not because of themselves,” said one of many reactions on Chinese social media after the release of the new data. “But in the failure of society and the men who do not want to take responsibility for raising children.”

The situation is similar in other countries in the region: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all facing declining populations because both birth rates and immigration numbers are low.

The birth rate in China last year was the lowest it has been since the data was collected. Since the death rate has increased at the same time, the population has decreased.

Many experts have already predicted that the world’s most populous country will soon reach a turning point and its population will shrink. Since this turning point was foreseeable, the government has already taken countermeasures. The most well-known example is certainly the renunciation of the «one-child policy».

However, today’s figures show that the desired effect did not materialize. As a result, the Chinese population fell by around 850,000 people last year.