A vote observed in Portugal, but also within the various Portuguese communities scattered around the world. This Sunday, January 30, Portuguese voters are called to the polls for decisive early legislative elections. Yves Léonard, specialist in contemporary Portugal, deciphers the situation for CNEWS.
Last October, the news had resonated like a thunderclap within the opinion and among the Portuguese political class.
For the first time since the advent of democracy in 1974, the country’s parliament failed to approve the 2022 finance bill, triggering a political crisis.
In this context, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, “independent” but historically center-right, had decided to dissolve the National Assembly, effectively burying the “geringonça”, the “bidule”, this unusual coalition of left-wing parties, led by Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa.
What are the main challenges of these early legislative elections?
The issue that tends to become the most important is an issue of governance. From this Sunday evening, for the announcement of the results, and probably again from tomorrow morning, the challenge will be to read between the lines insofar as the Socialist Party (PS) and the PSD (Centre-right) are elbow to elbow – elbow in the polls.
If no one has a clear majority, the question will therefore be to know what types of alliance could be made and, if they will be made, in the medium or long term, to the detriment of the fundamental issues, of vision, of the place that the leaders intend to give to Portugal. In summary, at this stage, we are therefore more concerned with issues of political tactics than with truly strategic issues of project against project.
What are the latest polls saying?
The two leading parties are now credited with extremely tight voting intentions. A fortnight ago, according to various polling institutes, the Socialist Party was at 38% and the PSD around 30%. However, this week, some institutes gave them both at 34%. On Wednesday, a survey even gave the PSD 35.5% and the PS one point behind.
The game has finally become quite complex with, added to that, behind these two big parties, a multitude of formations which, even if they are given below 10%, can for some of them claim to reach third place such as the far-right party “Chega” (It’s enough, in French, editor’s note).
As a reminder, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa wanted, by convening these early legislative elections, a clarification of the political situation, but, as things stand, this is more than uncertain and we are entitled to wonder if it’s actually going to happen.
According to you, would agreements between the PS and their former allies in the left bloc be possible in the future or is the union definitely dead and buried?
I believe that in politics, as in many areas, you should never say never. There have been extremely strong tensions in recent years, and especially in recent months, with the budget affair. There have again recently been fairly direct attacks by the block of esquerda against the PS and against Prime Minister Antonio Costa.
Still, faced with this elbow-to-elbow situation between the PS and the PSD, Catarina Martins, the leader of the left bloc hinted at the beginning of the week that all the doors were not closed. And faced with the risk, which exists, for the left of a Portuguese-style union of rights, anything can happen.
Regarding the hard-right party Chega, which today has only one deputy, its leader André Ventura, what can we expect?
Regarding Chega, the polls are counting between 6% and 7% of voting intentions. And with the proportional on the various constituencies, the estimates revolve around ten, even a dozen deputies. Which, of course, would give it a much larger sounding board than at present. This not only at the political level in the game of alliances, but also in the media. Still, the margin of error of the polls is an element not to be overlooked and this interpretation that is made of the polls is perhaps also a way of not demobilizing the voters.
Precisely, do you think that the participation will be there?
One can rationally estimate that participation will be down. For several reasons but above all because it is a downward trend, which has lasted for several years, so we do not see what could stem it, except danger or alert on an electorate able to remobilise, in particular the PS which could to think that the election was a foregone conclusion.
Another element, cyclical this one, is the Covid-19 pandemic. For this Sunday, polling day, an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 people are positive and therefore unable to move, even if an advance voting system, with 285,000 registered and with a participation rate of more of 90% has been implemented.
France has a large Portuguese community. Within it, voices were raised to deplore the fact of not having been sufficiently involved or informed about this election. Do you think that there has been an “omission” on the part of Lisbon vis-à-vis its diaspora?
I’m not lusodescendant, so I’m not of Portuguese origin, but it is clear that the voting methods pose a problem for the expression of Portuguese abroad. Four seats, including two for Europe, are only allocated for an electoral college outside the borders which represents 1.5 million registered voters.
The resulting turnout last time was barely 10% here. We have here an asymmetry which ultimately raises the question of an under-representation of Portuguese living outside Portugal. Moreover, and if, as the polls suggest, the vote is neck and neck, it is possible that, this evening, we will finally have to wait for the result, always late, of these 4 deputies from abroad who in addition to being decisive could shed light on this problem of representation.