On Sunday, November 19, Argentines will know whether they will be governed for the next four years by a far-right ultraliberal, Javier Milei, or by the current Minister of the Economy, the Peronist Sergio Massa (center left), on the balance sheet poor. The two finalists in the first round of the October 22 presidential election are neck and neck in the polls, with a slight advantage for the first.
Thursday, November 16, the outsider (30% of the votes in the first round), launched into politics barely three years ago, closed his campaign in Cordoba, 700 kilometers northwest of Buenos Aires, during a meeting bringing together an impressive crowd, while Sergio Massa (36.8%) had chosen, in contrast to the large gatherings attended by Peronism (named after former president Juan Peron, in office from 1946 to 1955 and from 1973 to 1974) is accustomed to the more hushed and intimate atmosphere of the courtyard of one of the main public schools in Buenos Aires, the Carlos-Pellegrini, to which the press did not have access.
The campaign seemed eternal. Argentines spent the year at the polls, between municipal, provincial, primary, legislative and presidential elections. Everything can be decided at the last moment, with undecided voters still representing 8 to 10% of voters. Javier Milei will certainly benefit from a large part of the votes of those who voted, in the first round, against Peronism, i.e. 64% of voters. In power for sixteen of the last twenty years, the center-left movement – it has evolved significantly throughout its seventy-eight years of existence – is held responsible for galloping inflation (143% in one year) and the poverty rate of 40%, although this increased mainly during the center-right government of Mauricio Macri, between 2015 and 2019.
Count on a voice carryover
Many of his voters believe that Mr. Milei will not have the means, due to a lack of sufficient seats in Congress, to carry out his most extreme projects. Why, then, vote for him? “Between the plague and cholera, it is difficult to choose, but any candidate for change is preferable to the continuity represented by Sergio Massa and Peronism, which we no longer want,” explains Ana Maria Croce, 71, who works in a medical analysis laboratory.
Javier Milei should above all be able to count on a carryover of votes from the right-wing candidate who came third on October 22, Patricia Bullrich, from Mauricio Macri’s party, Juntos por el Cambio (“Together for Change”). Both assured Javier Milei of their support just after the first round. A crucial rallying point, while Mme Bullrich received 6.2 million votes (23.8%). She was present, Thursday evening, alongside him, on the stage of the Cordoba meeting.
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