Armistice offer coming?: Putin is playing for a “new major offensive” on time

Armistice offer coming?
Putin is playing for a “new major offensive” on time

By Kevin Schulte
10/31/2022, 2:46 p.m

Vladimir Putin reportedly wants to negotiate to reach a ceasefire. This is suggested by statements by the Russian President. But more than a lazy peace seems unlikely. Rather, reports from the Kremlin indicate that the alleged willingness to negotiate is a ruse.

As long as Vladimir Putin is President, Ukraine will not negotiate with Russia. That was the decision made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in early October – in response to the illegal annexations of Ukrainian territories. But Putin is unlikely to leave the Kremlin any time soon, so the war in Ukraine can only be decided on the battlefield at the moment.

Since the successful Ukrainian offensive, however, Russia apparently has a need for discussion. First, on October 6, Valentina Matviyenko, chairwoman of the Federation Council, brought up a meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations at the G20 summit (November 15-16) in Indonesia. A week later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin would also meet with US President Joe Biden in Bali.

The next day, Sergei Naryshkin, head of the SVR foreign intelligence service, spoke of “possible negotiations, but only under certain conditions”. He did not say what the exact conditions are. Kremlin spokesman recalled last weekend Dmitry Peskov the USA once again reminded that a meeting between Putin and Biden at the G20 summit would be possible.

It is obvious that Russia is now seeking talks after more than eight months of war. Even away from the public eye, like that independent Russian exile medium Meduza reported. The Kremlin wants to persuade other heads of state and government – especially in the West – to convince the Ukrainian government of a ceasefire. The focus is on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who brokered the grain deal, reporters report, citing sources close to the Russian government.

But the Kremlin appears to be playing a double game. According to Meduza, he does not want the armistice to bring about a definitive end to the war. Instead, the weakened Russian troops are to be given a break in order to launch a new major offensive in Ukraine in the spring. The army wants to use the time to train hundreds of thousands of conscripts and other new recruits. It also needs new supplies and ammo. As long as you fight, there is no time for it.

“Russia wants the West to influence Ukraine”

“We still have the winter ahead of us. The question is whether the Russians will be able to retreat to the fortified defense systems. Then they could pull the troops in as part of the partial mobilization,” analyzed Military expert Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich “Stern” podcast “Ukraine – the situation” the current situation. “But what I rather believe is that Russia is trying to increase the pressure on Western countries to influence Ukraine to engage in negotiations with the Russian Federation.”

Masala is convinced that Russia still believes that it can win its war of aggression with conventional weapons. But the chances shouldn’t be too great – because the West continues to supply Ukraine with weapons. Apparently Moscow has no great interest in waging the war indefinitely as before. Statements by Putin himself indicate this. Russia’s ruler said last week that his country was ready to negotiate with Ukraine, but Kyiv refused.

No talks since Bucha

Shortly after the war began, Ukraine had shown itself to be even more open to negotiations. At that time there were even several joint talks between Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Istanbul. But they were cut short when serious war crimes by Russian soldiers were discovered in Bucha. As a result, evidence of Russian atrocities was found in other places in Ukraine. Since then, Ukraine has refused to talk to Russia in any way, let alone negotiate.

Most military experts understand this because Russia will only accept a ceasefire on its own terms. Lasting peace is not the goal at all. Carlo Masala can well imagine that Russia will soon offer a concrete ceasefire agreement – albeit on its own terms. “I still believe that after it is clear exactly which areas will be incorporated into the Russian Federation after this sham annexation, Russia may then offer a ceasefire.”

Armistice on Russian terms

Russia’s offer could look like this: Kremlin troops stop the attacks. In return, Ukraine accepts the illegal annexations of the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Cherson – and of course Crimea as well. A deal that Ukraine and the West will not accept, says Joachim Krause, director of the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel, on ntv. “In his speech, Putin no longer called for Ukraine’s unconditional surrender. That’s a certain amount of progress, if you will. But that’s still a negotiating position that isn’t acceptable to Ukraine.”

According to Meduza, Putin’s major goal is still the conquest of all of Ukraine. But the Kremlin is now considering a “tactical option” as an interim solution, they say. The scenario envisages a “temporary ceasefire” instead of a “permanent” one. So he could go through Negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian troops come about without Zelenskyy and Putin being involved.

However, Ukraine does not fall for the feint. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak is quoted as saying by “Meduza” that they are “extremely interested” in defeating Russia militarily. This is the only way to end the war, punish the war criminals legally and indirectly initiate regime change in Russia.