Back on the red carpet
Syria’s dictator Assad is working on his rehabilitation
By Cigdem Akyol
07/01/2023 10:12 am
For years, Syria’s dictator Assad was isolated internationally, and there were only contacts with his allies Russia and Iran. He is now experiencing a veritable wave of support from neighboring Arab countries.
While most EU countries are still not deporting people to Syria because “the brutal dictator Assad” rules there, as Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock recently said, the Arab countries are welcoming the ruler. In mid-May, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was reinstated in a festively decorated hall in Jeddah with a fraternal kiss and hugs at the Arab League summit. The meeting was hosted by Saudi Arabia. The appearance of the smiling Assad marked the successful conclusion of years of efforts to reintegrate the dictator into regional politics.
This puts the dictator back on the international stage in the thirteenth year of the civil war. The readmission to the Arab League was preceded by numerous friendly words, a remarkable invitation and many conciliatory gestures that were unthinkable before the February 6 earthquake in the Turkish-Syrian border region: At the end of February, Assad visited Oman, where he had been since the outbreak of the war in Syria in 2011 had not been. Officially, on board a Syrian Airlines plane. Syrian state media showed a photo of Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tarik shaking hands with his Syrian counterpart in the capital, Muscat. In the same month, Assad was seen walking relaxedly across a red carpet in Damascus, surrounded by several speakers of parliament from Arab countries. At the beginning of March he then traveled to the United Arab Emirates with his wife Asma al-Assad. It was the First Lady’s first official state visit to the Gulf State in the past 12 years and only her husband’s second visit after a visit in March 2022.
The earthquake provided the occasion
Since the violent suppression of the protests in 2011 and the resulting civil war, which has now killed more than 500,000 civilians and around 14 million fled, the ruler has been largely isolated for a long time. Not only the West, but also many Arab countries broke off relations with Syria. Syria’s membership of the Arab League was suspended in 2011. For a long time, Assad hardly traveled abroad, only to the allied countries Russia and Iran. Still shunned by the West, the Syrian dictator has experienced a wave of support from neighboring countries since the earthquake.
In recent years, some of these had already initiated a normalization of their relations with the Syrian regime. However, the earthquake catastrophe finally helped Assad to accelerate the rehabilitation he had started. Syria expert Fabrice Balanche from the University of Lyon says the destruction was particularly dramatic for people living in the rebel areas. “The earthquake gave the Arab states an opportunity for an exchange without losing face. This is very important in the Middle East.”
While the Emirates, Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Oman have been trying to get closer to the Assad regime for some time now, countries that actually support the Syrian opposition or have blocked Syria’s return to the Arab League have joined them . These included Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan.
Most refugees cannot return
The reasons for Assad’s rehabilitation are different: Lebanon and Jordan, as neighboring countries, have been badly affected by the civil war – both governments want above all that the Syrians who have fled to their countries return to their homeland. In Lebanon, for example, where authorities blame the country’s economic crisis on an estimated 1.5 million refugees, curfews have been imposed on refugees and their ability to rent apartments has been restricted. According to human rights activists, the Lebanese military has deported hundreds of Syrian refugees in recent months. Egypt, Qatar and the Emirates, on the other hand, primarily have security policy interests and have been fighting for further geopolitical influence in the region around the eastern Mediterranean for a long time. The longer Assad was isolated, the greater the risk of finally losing the tough dictator to Iran and Russia.
With the re-admission of Syria to the League, the Arab Spring failed everywhere, says the academic Balanche. The allegations against Assad – crimes against humanity, use of chemical weapons against his own people, attacks on schools and hospitals – have been forgotten. “Assad can’t go to Europe or the US – but he can go to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Moscow, Shanghai,” says Balanche.
The normalization of the Assad regime in the Arab world also has far-reaching consequences for those who have fled. Fabrice Balanche is certain: “Ninety percent of the Syrian refugees will never be able to return to Syria. Even if they wanted to, the regime doesn’t want it because many belong to the opposition.” For Assad, they are all “traitors”. In addition, the refugees would have already lost everything in their old homeland. “What they left behind in Syria was taken over by the government or a warlord,” says Balanche. “For political and economic reasons, there is no way for these people to return.” This also applies if the economic situation in Syria improves. It probably isn’t: “The country needs hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild,” Balanche said.
Scholz could meet Assad in November
While the USA and the European Union are sticking to their sanctions against Syria and Washington is even preparing new sanctions, the course taken by the Arab states shows that their foreign policy is no longer guided by the West. “The West is losing its influence on the Arab countries,” says Balanche. From an Arab point of view, the Western sanctions against Syria are annoying, but no longer so important. “They want to be a regional regulatory force and act independently of the West.”
This has also been the case for Turkey for some time. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan still supports the Syrian rebel groups who want to overthrow the Syrian government, which is protected by Moscow and Tehran. But Erdoğan has also been trying to close ranks with Assad for months. The annoyance of NATO allies leaves him cold. His priority is the prospect of a return for the more than three million Syrian refugees living in Turkey. The Turkish government has sporadically forcibly deported Syrians. Due to the ongoing economic crisis and the hostile mood against refugees, which was additionally fueled after the earthquake, Erdoğan’s pressure to act has increased. “Erdoğan wants to find a way to send the Syrian refugees back. He wants to show the Turkish people that he can reach an agreement with Assad on this and even prevent a new wave of refugees,” says Balanche. The Turkish president has therefore repeatedly agreed to meet Assad – but he has so far refused because of the stationing of Turkish troops in northern Syria. Because Ankara has not complied with Damascus’s request to withdraw from the area, reconciliation is likely to be difficult.
An end to the civil war is not yet in sight. Russia, too, continues to fly airstrikes in Syria, largely unnoticed internationally due to the war in Ukraine. Assad’s return is also a “defeat for the West,” said Balanche. He did everything to bring down the dictator – without success. He advises the West to deal with the new reality. “Because it is impossible to overthrow Assad. He is protected by Russia and Iran.” Meanwhile, Assad is likely to prepare for the first meetings with Western heads of state and government: He has been invited to the world climate conference in Dubai in November, which US President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron could also attend. “How will they be able to pose together in the same family photo?” Balanche asks.