INSEE confirmed today that inflation will be lower in the second half of 2023 than in the first. Good news for the consumer which should, however, affect the rate of popular savings booklet (LEP) in a few months.
It is a certainty: the rate of the Livret A and the LDDS, 3% net currently, will not move for another year and a half. Last July, the government decided to block it until January 31, 2025, regardless of the evolution of prices and key rates between now and then. An unexpected choice and contested in court.
This freeze, however, does not apply to the People’s Savings Booklet, by far the best-paid booklet on the market: 6% net. Its yield is therefore likely to change as of 1 February. And the prospects are not very favorable.
Second half inflation 4.30%
A reminder: since a 2018 reform, it is consumer prices which decide the evolution of the LEP rate. More precisely average inflation excluding tobacco for the previous semester. To hope for a rise in the LEP rate in February, this index would therefore have to exceed 6% this semester. It doesn’t take the path, far from it.
In its traditional back-to-school report, released today, INSEE estimated average inflation for the current semester at 4.30%. Well below, therefore, the figure for the 1st half (5.60%), which in August had led to the maintenance of the LEP rate at 6%. And as usual, what appears to be good news for our purchasing power is less so for the return on our savings.
An inevitable drop?
With such a gap – more than 1.5 points – between the LEP rate (6%) and inflation (4.3%), it is difficult to see, in fact, the Banque de France not suggesting to the government to lower it to February 1. Asked by MoneyVox in mid-July about the possibility of a new boost in February 2024, its governor, Franois Villeroy de Galhau, also remained evasive: Every day is enough for its punishment. See you in 6 months. LEP will remain attractive.
It remains to be seen the exact extent of a possible drop. The government, which can ultimately set the rate as it wishes, has a choice. He will be able to strictly apply the calculation formula and set the LEP rate at 4.30%; round it up to the next half point (4.50%), as it did in July; or slow down its decline, by maintaining it at 5% or 5.50%.
One thing is certain: the LEP rate will not go down not below 3.50% before February 2025, even in the event of a sharp drop in inflation. We explained why in this article.
With a Livret A blocked at 3%, is the LEP rate guaranteed above 3.5% until 2025?