The kick is given. The fourth quarter corporate earnings season kicks off this Friday in the United States. A sequence that could be complicated on the financial markets, as investors are already following several issues with concern, including the spread of the Omicron variant, the trajectory of inflation and the upcoming tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. According to the FactSet consensus, the estimated earnings increase for the S&P 500 is 21.7%, a fourth consecutive quarter of growth above 20%, due, in part, to a basis for comparison made easier by the fact that many industries were still feeling the impact of Covid-19 at the end of 2020. From a sector perspective, there will of course be winners. This year, they seem to be the right choice: it will be the banks. ” Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to report record 2021 profits on the back of higher investment banking fees and lower-than-expected loan losses during the pandemic, but analysts warn it will likely take years to reiterate such exceptional benefits says John Plassard, investment specialist at Mirabaud. According to estimates compiled by Bloomberg and S&P Capital IQ, the banks, with the exception of Citi, will post the highest profits in their history in 2021. We will get a first look at their financial performance this Friday, with the publications Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, as well as the asset manager BlackRock.
AG under voltage for SMCP
In France, the business agenda will be further reduced. Manutan International will present its turnover for the first quarter, while SMCP will convene its shareholders to an ordinary general meeting, starting at 2 p.m. An AG under tension, whose holding, challenged by European TopSoho, the investment vehicle of the Chinese group Shandong Riyu, was only confirmed at the beginning of the week following a decision by the Paris Commercial Court. The shareholders will have to decide on the dismissal of the representatives of Shandong Ruyi and European Topsoho within the board of directors of the French group of accessible luxury.
On the statistical front, the session will be intense, particularly in the United States, where four indicators are on the agenda. Chief among them: retail sales in december, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Several elements argue in favor of a drop: the spread of the virus, which has limited travel, travel and leisure, the fear of shortages, which has prompted American consumers to anticipate their purchases for the end-of-year holidays, and inflation, which encroaches on purchasing power. Economists on average expect a decline of 0.1% over one month in retail sales, after rising 0.3% in November. The same factors could weigh on consumer morale. The household confidence index, measured by the University of Michigan, is expected at 70 points in January’s preliminary estimate, against 70.6 in December. A slowdown in industrial production in december cannot be ruled out (consensus: +0.2% over one month) due to supply chain bottlenecks. Finally, the american business stocksands should emerge up 1.2% over one month in December.
Small rebound of the German economy
Before these American meetings, the operators will take note of the chinese trade balance in december (consensus: 74.5 billion dollars), that of the euro zone in November (consensus: 1.5 billion euros), the final figure of inflation in France in december (consensus: + 3.4% over one year) or the German GDP growth in 2021. ” It is customary for the statistics office to publish an estimate of annual growth even before publishing the GDP for the fourth quarter. The little game consists in deducing it since we already know the first, the second and the third quarter “, reminded the firm Oddo BHF at the beginning of the week. After a 5% fall in 2020, the eurozone’s biggest economy is expected to have grown just 2.7% last year due to shortages in industry, experts say.
PC