Heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine: Russia’s invasion army has been attacking Avdiivka with all its might for almost four weeks – so far without any major successes. A look at the map shows where the Russian attacks are starting.
The battle for Avdiivka began at the beginning of October: While the world was still looking at the consequences of the Hamas attack on Israel, the Russian invading army in Ukraine launched a major attack. For several days starting on October 6th, Russian artillery fired from all cylinders towards the city area. On October 10th, the first Russian attack columns set off.
In a stretched formation, battle tanks and armored personnel carriers rolled towards the front behind specially equipped mine clearing vehicles. Since then there has been fighting at Avdiivka. Russian shock troops attack constantly.
Satellite image with the front line drawn: The situation near Avdiivka at the beginning of November.
(Photo: ntv.de data, satellite image © ESA / Sentinel Hub)
For the hoped-for offensive successes, Avdiivka must appear to Russian military planners to be almost ideally located: since the fighting last spring, two large frontal ledges have protruded deep into the Ukrainian hinterland. The city center of Avdiivka, with its industrial facilities around the coking plant and the old railway line, lies in a deep bulge in the front.
Even before the major attack, the city was surrounded by Russian forces on three sides and was subject to occasional artillery fire. After several days of continuous shelling at the beginning of October, the situation on site promised quick military success: Avdiivka is located in comparatively flat terrain. With a simple pincer movement, according to the calculation of the attack operations, the Russian army could quickly encircle Avdiivka. In fact, the Russian advances appear to be concentrated on these two front ledges northeast and southwest of the city.
However, a prerequisite for a Russian encirclement of Avdiivka would be major breakthroughs in the Ukrainian lines. So far it doesn’t look like that – despite the most violent Russian attacks. The defenders have so far fended off all major attacks. The Russian attack columns remain in the midst of extensive minefields under Ukrainian defensive fire. According to British military experts, drone footage indicates exceptionally high Russian losses. The Russian troops continue to attack ruthlessly.
City converted into a fortress
Some geographical features appear to favor the defense of Bakhmut. In the north and northeast, for example, the railway embankment and the coking plant’s industrial facilities, which are visible from afar, shield the city like a bulwark. So far the Russians have not succeeded in penetrating the railway embankment as far as Stepove and Berdychi. Towards the east, however, the terrain slopes down significantly: here a narrow stream winds from Donetsk to the north. Avdiivka lies on a slight hill.
In the south, the front line partly follows the old northern bypass of Donetsk. The highway-like route offers good cover and – like at Pisky – was the scene of intense fighting months ago. In the southwest of Avdiivka there is a chain of dammed ponds and ponds with the tributaries of the Vodiana. This natural terrain obstacle near Opytne and Wodjane is only passable in a few places for tanks and troop transports.
In addition, the Ukrainian defenders are apparently well prepared for the Russian attacks. Drones keep an eye on every movement behind Russian lines. Ukrainian gun batteries fire at attacking Russian units with precision and cluster munitions. The fallow fields in the area are mined. There is fierce fighting for every row of trees. Observers suspect that the entire city has long since been converted into a fortress.
The battle for Avdiivka could well influence the further course of the war: the Russians are apparently trying to force a major military success before the start of winter. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, see another opportunity to inflict significant losses on the Kremlin’s military machine. The city itself is now largely deserted by its residents. Large parts of the Donbass suburb, which once had a population of around 30,000, are already in ruins.
The former industrial site of Avdiivka had been near the front since the beginning of the war. The city center of Donetsk is only 15 kilometers away as the crow flies. On the southern outskirts of Avdiivka, Russian-loyal “separatists” and free Ukraine have been facing each other since 2014. The old “contact line” from the failed Minsk agreements ran between the two cities. The destroyed major airport in Donetsk is located only around seven kilometers southwest of Avdiivka.