Updated
The boss of the RN loses half a point and would only collect 44.5% of voting intentions in the second round. The president-candidate maintains the pace and rises to 55.5% in our Ifop-Fiducial survey for Paris Match-LCI-Sud Radio.
The days go by and look alike for Marine Le Pen in this between-two-rounds. Another half-point lost for the RN candidate, despite increased votes among Éric Zemmour voters: +2, or 78% according to our Ifop-Fiducial poll. Despite a campaign focused on purchasing power and which allowed her to erase some characteristic features of her party in the first round, Marine Le Pen was unable to stem the fall and lost ground to Emmanuel Macron. The useful vote is beginning to emerge: -2 points of voting intentions among Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters, or 20%, while his competitor wins 2 for a total of 39%. Finally, the appeal of the Insoumis to “not vote for her” (Le Pen without expressing himself explicitly in favor of the outgoing) seems to work all the same. At least partially.
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On the LR side, it’s different: the two candidates gain +2 voting intentions among Valérie Pécresse’s voters, i.e. 48% for Macron and 28% for Le Pen and twenty points which separate them… If we look in the detail, voters having a “proximity to La France Insoumise” are 66% to say they want to vote for the president-candidate (+4), and 66% of voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round (+3) want to slip a Macron bulletin. The only problem at LREM, the right-wing vote, still undecided, voters “close to LR” are only 61% (-6) wanting to vote for him! The candidate, on the other hand, obtains the confidence of 40% of the “relatives of the LRs”, by gaining +7.
Marine Le Pen, since April 11, has been losing almost constantly – see Tuesday’s poll – 0.5 per day. Her fluctuating positions on banning the veil in public spaces, coupled with the war in Ukraine and an inability to put together a team capable of governing seem to have gotten the better of her campaign. She nevertheless continues to pursue her idea of ”people’s candidate” – purchasing power will, moreover, be the first subject of debate: +2 among “workers”, i.e. 66%, +2 among “without diplomas” , or 57% and +4, or 52% for the “poor categories”.
This second round campaign – some would call it monomaniacal – will it be enough to eventually turn the tide?